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Assessing risk and adaptation options to fires and windstorms in European forestry

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Abstract

Risks can generally be described as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Using this framework, we evaluated the historical and future development of risk of fire and wind damage in European forestry at the national level. Fire risk is expected to increase, mainly as a consequence of an increase in fire hazard, defined as the Fire Weather Index in summer. Exposure, defined as forest area, is expected to increase slightly as a consequence of active afforestation and abandonment of marginal agricultural areas. Adaptation options to fire risk should therefore aim to decrease the vulnerability, where a change in tree species from conifers to broadleaves had most effect. Risk for wind damage in forests is expected to increase mainly as a consequence of increase in exposure (total growing stock) and vulnerability (defined by age class and tree species distribution). Projections of future wind climate indicate an increase in hazard (storminess) mainly over Western Europe. Adaptation options should aim to limit the increase in exposure and vulnerability. Only an increase in harvest level can stop the current build-up of growing stock, while at the same time it will lower vulnerability through the reduction of the share of old and vulnerable stands. Changing species from conifers to broadleaves helps to reduce vulnerability as well. Lowering vulnerability by decreasing the rotation length is only effective in combination with a high demand for wood. Due to data limitations, no forecast of future fire area or damaged timber amount by storms was possible.

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Acknowledgements

This study was financed by the European Commission through the ADAM project (Adaptation and Mitigation: Supporting European climate policy, FP7-018476). The research is part of the strategic research programmes “Sustainable spatial development of ecosystems, landscapes, seas and regions” and “Climate change”, funded by the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature Conservation and Food Quality, and carried out by Wageningen University Research centre. Furthermore we would like to thank Emil Cienciala and Zuzanna Exnerová from IFER for their help in obtaining historical forest inventory data for the Czech Republic.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Alterra, Wageningen UR, the Netherlands

    Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Geerten Hengeveld, Gert Jan Reinds & Herbert ter Maat

  2. University of Florence, Florence, Italy

    Marco Bindi

  3. CNR-IBIMET, Florence, Italy

    Marco Moriondo

  4. Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland

    Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

  5. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

    Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

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  1. Mart-Jan Schelhaas
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  2. Geerten Hengeveld
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  3. Marco Moriondo
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  4. Gert Jan Reinds
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  6. Herbert ter Maat
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Correspondence to Mart-Jan Schelhaas.

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Schelhaas, MJ., Hengeveld, G., Moriondo, M. et al. Assessing risk and adaptation options to fires and windstorms in European forestry. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 15, 681–701 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-010-9243-0

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