Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Elasticity and loop analyses: tools for understanding forest landscape response to climatic change in spatial dynamic models

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Landscape Ecology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Spatially explicit dynamic forest landscape models have been important tools to study large-scale forest landscape response under global climatic change. However, the quantification of relative importance of different transition pathways among different forest types to forest landscape dynamics stands as a significant challenge. In this study, we propose a novel approach of elasticity and loop analyses to identify important transition pathways contributing to forest landscape dynamics. The elasticity analysis calculates the elasticity to measure the importance of one-directional transitions (transition from one forest type directly to another forest type); while the loop analysis is employed to measure the importance of different circular transition pathways (transition from one forest type through other forest types back to itself). We apply the proposed approach to a spatially explicit dynamic model, LANDIS-II, in a study of forest landscape response to climatic change in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) incorporating the uncertainties in climatic change predictions. Our results not only corroborate the findings of the previous studies on the most likely future forest compositions under simulated climatic variability, but also, through the novel application of the elasticity and loop analyses concepts, provide a quantitative assessment of the specific mechanisms leading to particular forest compositions, some of which might remain undetected with conventional model evaluation methods. By quantifying the importance of specific processes (transitions among forest types) to forest composition dynamics, the proposed approach can be a valuable tool for a more quantitative understanding of the relationship between processes and landscape composition/patterns.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aber JD, Ollinger SV, Federer CA, Reich PB, Goulden ML, Kicklighter DW, Melillo JM, Lathrop RG (1995) Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the Northeastern U.S. Clim Res 5:207–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams MJ (2008) Graph decompositions for demographic loop analysis. J Math Biol 57:209–221

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Bachelet D, Neilson RP, Lenihan JM, Drapek RJ (2001) Climate change effects on vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the United States. Ecosystems 4:164–185

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Baker WL (1989) Landscape ecology and nature reserve design in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, Minnesota. Ecology 70:23–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baker WL (1992) Effects of settlement and fire suppression on landscape structure. Ecology 73:1879–1887

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baker WL, Egbert SL, Frazier GF (1991) A spatial model for studying the effects of climatic change on the structure of landscapes subject to large disturbances. Ecol Model 56:109–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caswell H (2001) Matrix population models: construction, analysis, and interpretation. Sinauer Associates, Inc., Sunderland, MA, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Charlesworth B (1994) Evolution in age-structured populations. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Dale VH, Joyce LA, McNulty S, Neilson RP, Ayres MP, Flannigan MD, Hanson PJ, Irland LC, Lugo AE, Peterson CJ, Simberloff D, Swanson FJ, Stocks BJ, Wotton BM (2001) Climate change and forest disturbances. Bioscience 51:723–734

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Kroon H, van Groenendael J, Ehrlen J (2000) Elasticities: a review of methods and model limitations. Ecology 81:607–618

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drake BG, GonzalezMeler MA, Long SP (1997) More efficient plants: a consequence of rising atmospheric CO2? Annu Rev Plant Physiol Plant Mol Biol 48:609–639

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Frelich LE, Reich PB (1995) Spatial patterns and succession in a Minnesota southern-boreal forest. Ecol Monogr 65:325–346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Güneralp B (2007) An improved formal approach to demographic loop analysis. Ecology 88:2124–2131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gustafson EJ (1998) Quantifying landscape spatial pattern: what is the state of the art? Ecosystems 1:143–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gustafson EJ, Shvidenko AZ, Sturtevant BR, Scheller RM Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia. Ecol Appl (in review)

  • Hansen AJ, Neilson RR, Dale VH, Flather CH, Iverson LR, Currie DJ, Shafer S, Cook R, Bartlein PJ (2001) Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes. Bioscience 51:765–779

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He HS, Mladenoff DJ, Gustafson EJ (2002) Study of landscape change under forest harvesting and climate warming-induced fire disturbance. For Ecol Manag 155:257–270

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heinselman M (1973) Fire in the virgin forests of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, Minnesota. Quatern Res 3:329–382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report, Geneva, Switzerland

  • Iverson LR, Prasad AM (1998) Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecol Monogr 68:465–485

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iverson LR, Prasad AM (2001) Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types following climate change. Ecosystems 4:186–199

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Iverson LR, Prasad AM (2002) Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US. For Ecol Manag 155:205–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobson GL, Dieffenbacher-Krall A (1995) White-pine and climate-change: insights from the past. J For 93:39–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Lenihan JM, Drapek R, Bachelet D, Neilson RP (2003) Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California. Ecol Appl 13:1667–1681

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lenihan J, Bachelet D, Neilson R, Drapek R (2008) Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California. Clim Change 87:215–230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Long SP (1991) Modification of the response of photosynthetic productivity to rising temperature by atmospheric CO2 concentrations—has its importance been underestimated. Plant Cell Environ 14:729–739

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Long SP, Ainsworth EA, Rogers A, Ort DR (2004) Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide: plants face the future. Annu Rev Plant Biol 55:591–628

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Miller C, Urban DL (1999) Forest pattern, fire, and climatic change in the Sierra Nevada. Ecosystems 2:76–87

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohan JE, Clark JS, Schlesinger WH (2007) Long-term CO2 enrichment of a forest ecosystem: implications for forest regeneration and succession. Ecol Appl 17:1198–1212

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Moser WK, Hansen MH, Nelson MD, Crocker SJ, Perry CH, Schulz B, Woodall CW, Nagel LM and Mielke ME (2007) After the blowdown: a resource assessment of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, 1999–2003. Northern Research Station, U.S. Department of Agriculture–Forest Service, Newtown Square, PA. 63

  • Neilson RP, Drapek RJ (1998) Potentially complex biosphere responses to transient global warming. Glob Change Biol 4:505–521

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Neill RV, Krummel JR, Gardner RH, Sugihara G, Jackson B, DeAngelis DL, Milne BT, Turner MG, Zygmunt B, Christenson SW, Dale VH, Graham RL (1987) Indices of landscape pattern. Landscape Ecol 1:153–162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ollinger SV, Aber JD, Reich PB, Freuder RJ (2002) Interactive effects of nitrogen deposition, tropospheric ozone, elevated CO2 and land use history on the carbon dynamics of northern hardwood forests. Glob Change Biol 8:545–562

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Osborn T, Briffa KR (2006) The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years. Science 311:841–844

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Pastor J, Post WM (1985) Development of a linked forest productivity-soil process model. Report ORNL/TM-9519. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee

    Google Scholar 

  • Rich RL, Frelich LE, Reich PB (2007) Wind-throw mortality in the southern boreal forest: effects of species, diameter and stand age. J Ecol 95:1261–1273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ (2004) A forest growth and biomass module for a landscape simulation model, LANDIS: design, validation, and application. Ecol Model 180:211–229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ (2005) A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA. Glob Change Biol 11:307–321

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ, Crow TR, Sickley TA (2005) Simulating the effects of fire reintroduction versus continued fire absence on forest composition and landscape structure in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, Northern Minnesota, USA. Ecosystems 8:396–411

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheller RM, Domingo JB, Sturtevant BR, Williams JS, Rudy A, Gustafson EJ, Mladenoff DJ (2007) Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution. Ecol Model 201:409–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schumacher S, Bugmann H (2006) The relative importance of climatic effects, wildfires and management for future forest landscape dynamics in the Swiss Alps. Glob Change Biol 12:1435–1450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shafer SL, Bartlein PJ, Thompson RS (2001) Potential changes in the distributions of Western North America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios. Ecosystems 4:200–215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Starker TJ (1934) Fire resistance in the forest. J For 32:462–467

    Google Scholar 

  • STATSGO (1994) State soil geographic (STATSGO) data base. Report number 1492. U.S. Department of Agriculture National Cartography and GIS Center, Fort Worth, TX

  • Sun L, Wang M (2007) An algorithm for a decomposition of weighted digraphs: with applications to life cycle analysis in ecology. J Math Biol 54:199–226

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Turner MG (1990) Spatial and temporal analysis of landscape patterns. Landscape Ecol 4:21–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner MG, Gardner RH, O’Neill RV (2001) Landscape ecology in theory and practice: pattern and process. Springer, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • van Groenendael J, Dekroon H, Kalisz S, Tuljapurkar S (1994) Loop analysis: evaluating life-history pathways in population projection matrices. Ecology 75:2410–2415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wardle GM (1998) A graph theory approach to demographic loop analysis. Ecology 79:2539–2549

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR, Swetnam TW (2006) Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313:940–943

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Xu C, Gertner GZ, Scheller RM (2007) Potential effects of interaction between CO2 and temperature on forest landscape response to global warming. Glob Change Biol 13:1469–1483

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu C, Gertner GZ, Scheller RM (2009) Uncertainties in the response of a forest landscape to global climatic change. Glob Change Biol 15:116–131

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zuidema PA, Brienen RJW, During HJ and Güneralp B (2009) Do persistently fast-growing juveniles contribute disproportionately to population growth? A new analysis tool for matrix models and its application to rainforest trees. Am Nat 174:709–719

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

U.S. Department of Agriculture McIntire-Stennis funds (MS 875-359) were used to support this study. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments which greatly improved this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, 61801, USA

    Chonggang Xu & George Z. Gertner

  2. Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA

    Burak Güneralp

  3. Conservation Biology Institute, 136 SW Washington, Suite 202, Corvallis, OR, 97333, USA

    Robert M. Scheller

Authors
  1. Chonggang Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Burak Güneralp
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. George Z. Gertner
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Robert M. Scheller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to George Z. Gertner.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOC 107 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Xu, C., Güneralp, B., Gertner, G.Z. et al. Elasticity and loop analyses: tools for understanding forest landscape response to climatic change in spatial dynamic models. Landscape Ecol 25, 855–871 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-010-9464-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-010-9464-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation