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Dynamical downscaling of future sea level change in the western North Pacific using ROMS

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Abstract

The future regional sea level (RSL) rise in the western North Pacific is investigated by dynamical downscaling with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with an eddy-permitting resolution based on three global climate models—MIROC-ESM, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, and GFDL-CM3—under the highest greenhouse-gas emission scenario. The historical run is forced by the air-sea fluxes calculated from Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment version 2 (COREv2) data. Three future runs—ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL—are forced with an atmospheric field constructed by adding the difference between the climate model parameters for the twenty-first and twentieth century to fields in the historical run. In all downscaling, the RSL rise along the eastern coast of Japan is generally half or less of the RSL rise maxima off the eastern coast. The projected regional (total) sea level rises along the Honshu coast during 2081–2100 relative to 1981–2000 are 19–25 (98–104), 6–15 (71–80), and 8–14 (80–86) cm in ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL, respectively. The discrepancies of the RSL rise along the Honshu coast between the climate models and downscaling are less than 10 cm. The RSL changes in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region in all downscaling simulations are related to the changes of KE (northward shift or intensification) with climate change.

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Notes

  1. Globally averaged sea level due to thermal expansion (thermosteric component) is estimated with a variable, zostoga, in CMIP5. However, zostoga is not available for GFDL-CM3, and thus we use another variability, zossga, (global average steric sea level change). For MIROC-ESM, both zostoga and zossga are available and the difference between them are small (less than 0.3 % for 100 year difference).

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Acknowledgments

We are thankful for fruitful discussion with Dr. Tamaki Yasuda and Dr. Tatsuo Suzuki. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers 26287110, 26610146, 15H01606. The numerical calculations were carried out on a computer at the Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Natural History Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan

    Zhao-Jun Liu, Shoshiro Minobe, Yoshi N. Sasaki & Mio Terada

  2. State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, 36 Baochubei Road, Hangzhou, 310012, China

    Zhao-Jun Liu

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  1. Zhao-Jun Liu
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Correspondence to Zhao-Jun Liu.

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Liu, ZJ., Minobe, S., Sasaki, Y.N. et al. Dynamical downscaling of future sea level change in the western North Pacific using ROMS. J Oceanogr 72, 905–922 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-016-0390-0

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