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Exploring the effects of population growth on future land use change in the Las Vegas Wash watershed: an integrated approach of geospatial modeling and analytics

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Abstract

The Las Vegas Valley metropolitan area is one of the fastest growing areas in the southwestern United States. The rapid urbanization has presented many environmental challenges. For instance, as population growth and urbanization continue, the supply of sufficient clean water will become a concern. In addition, the area is also experiencing the longest drought in history, and the volume of water storage in Lake Mead, the main fresh water supply for the entire region, has been reduced greatly. The water quality in the main stem of the Las Vegas Wash (LVW) and Lake Mead may also be significantly affected. In order to develop effective sustainable management plans, the very first step is to predict the plausible future urbanization and land use patterns. This paper presents an approach to predict the future land use pattern at the LVW watershed using a Markov cellular automata model. The multi-criteria evaluation was used to couple population density as a variable depicting the driving force of urbanization in the model. Moreover, landscape metrics were used to analyze land use changes in order to better understand the dynamics of urban development in the LVW watershed. The predicted future land use maps for the years 2030 and 2050 show substantial urban development in the area, much of which are located in areas sensitive to source water protections. The results of the analysis provide valuable information for local planners and policy makers, assisting their efforts in constructing alternative sustainable urban development schemes and environmental management strategies.

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Abbreviations

CA-Markov:

Markov cellular automata

MCE:

Multi-criteria evaluation

NLCD:

National Land Cover Dataset

MRLC:

Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium

PD:

Patch Density

PLAND:

Percentage of Landscape

SHDI:

Shannon’s Diversity Index

LVW:

Las Vegas Wash

LMR:

Little Miami River

CDP:

Census Designated Place

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Acknowledgments

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency partially funded the research described herein. The authors are grateful to the agency for the financial support. The manuscript has been subjected to the Agency’s administrative review and has been approved for external publication. Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency; therefore, no official endorsement should be inferred. Any mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, 45221, USA

    Yu Sun & Susanna T. Y. Tong

  2. Engineering Department, Las Vegas Valley Water District, Las Vegas, NV, 89153, USA

    Mao Fang

  3. U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development, Cincinnati, OH, 45268, USA

    Y. Jeffrey Yang

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  1. Yu Sun
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  2. Susanna T. Y. Tong
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  3. Mao Fang
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Correspondence to Yu Sun.

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Sun, Y., Tong, S.T.Y., Fang, M. et al. Exploring the effects of population growth on future land use change in the Las Vegas Wash watershed: an integrated approach of geospatial modeling and analytics. Environ Dev Sustain 15, 1495–1515 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-013-9447-z

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