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Predicting shifts in distribution range and niche breadth of plant species in contrasting arid environments under climate change

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Abstract

Arid environments face extreme risk from contemporary climate change; therefore, predicting the shifts in species distribution range and niche breadth in these environments assumes urgent research priority. Here we report the potential distribution and predict future distribution range of two model plant species typically representing contrasting environments across Asia and Africa: hot-arid Ephedra foliata and cold-arid E. gerardiana. We adopted a comparative modelling approach and used occurrence points from extensive field surveys, supplemented with herbaria records and publicly available distribution data. Our study reveals that currently an area of 8.797334 × 106 km2 (8.8%) is potentially suitable for E. foliata and nearly half 4.759326 × 106 km2 (4.8%) for E. gerardiana. Under future climate change scenarios, distribution range of E. foliata is predicted to expand but contract in E. gerardiana. Similarly, E. foliata showed broader niche breadth which is predicted to increase under B1 (0.097–0.125) and B2 (0.878–0.930) climatic change scenarios. In contrast, E. gerardiana had narrower niche breadth and expected to further decrease under B1 (0.081–0.078) and B2 (0.878–0.854). The most influential bioclimatic variable governing the potential distribution and niche breadth of E. foliata was the precipitation of warmest quarter, whereas that of E. gerardiana was temperature seasonality. The results from our study can help in developing potential indicator plant species for assessment and monitoring of distribution range shifts in response to changing climate in the arid environments.

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Data availability

The distributional datasets analysed during the current study are available from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility-GBIF repository (https://www.gbif.org/occurrence), and bioclimatic data were analysed from WorldClim database repository (http://www.worldclim.org).

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Acknowledgements

Staff of the herbaria mentioned in the manuscript especially curators and assistants are greatly acknowledged for their support. The authors are highly thankful to the two anonymous reviewers and the subject editor for their critical comments and insightful suggestions on earlier version of the manuscript.

Funding

During the course of the present study, financial support was received from SERB-DST (grant no: EMR/2015/000167) and MoEFCC (under AICOPTAX, F. No. 22018/12/2015/RE(Tax), Government of India, New Delhi, to Anzar A. Khuroo.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Biodiversity and Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006, India

    Zubair Ahmad Rather, Rameez Ahmad & Anzar Ahmad Khuroo

  2. Department of Botany, Govt, Degree College (Boys), Kupwara, Jammu and Kashmir, India

    Abdul Rashid Dar

  3. Department of Biotechnology, BGSB University, Rajouri, Jammu and Kashmir, India

    Tanvir Ul Hassan Dar

Authors
  1. Zubair Ahmad Rather
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  2. Rameez Ahmad
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  3. Abdul Rashid Dar
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  4. Tanvir Ul Hassan Dar
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  5. Anzar Ahmad Khuroo
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Contributions

AAK conceived the research idea, supervised the research work and managed fund acquisition; ZAR and AAK collected field and herbarium data; ZAR and RA conducted modelling and data analysis; ZAR and AAK together led the writing of draft manuscript; and all the authors reviewed and approved final draft of the manuscript for submission.

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Correspondence to Zubair Ahmad Rather.

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Rather, Z.A., Ahmad, R., Dar, A.R. et al. Predicting shifts in distribution range and niche breadth of plant species in contrasting arid environments under climate change. Environ Monit Assess 193, 427 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09160-5

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