Abstract
Over the last 10 years, organisations such as the IMF have launched several initiatives to change market practice with respect to sovereign bond contract drafting to ease restructuring after defaults. The first of these, the universal adoption of collective action clauses, was embraced by the market after some hesitation. Another proposal—the more widespread appointment of trustees to represent bondholders in times of crisis, to centralise enforcement action against the debtor and thus to facilitate debt relief—has so far failed to have the desired impact. Amongst other potential reasons for this failure, the argument has been made that to vest enforcement rights in the trustee, as opposed to individual bondholder rights, would be to reduce the deterrence against opportunistic defaults and thus to exacerbate moral hazard. Using a sample of secondary market bond spreads and information on default status, this paper assesses empirically whether sovereign bonds issued under a trust structure indeed carry a higher default risk. It finds no systematic evidence of either a spread premium or higher actual default rates for bonds with collective enforcement rights.
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Notes
To erase the doubts about the admissibility of CACs under German law (Häseler 2009), a reform of the Schuldverschreibungsgesetz (indenture law) was enacted on August 5th, 2009. Whether or not there will be any impact on market practice is difficult to say because only a single bond has been issued under German law since 2004, according to the dataset used in this study.
In correspondence with the author, Michael Chamberlin, Executive Director of the Emerging Markets Traders Association, said, “My personal view is that market discipline and individual rights of action are important protections for investors.”
As Michael Chamberlin said in correspondence with the author: “Trustees are notable for their caution, occasional incompetence and being subject to institutional constraints (need indemnities, may have conflicts of interest or be subject to political suasion) that make them less effective as litigants than individual holders.” See also Goodall (1983, p. 2): “[I]nvestors often complain that trustees do not act positively enough.” Buchheit and Gulati (2009) document the case of a “bovinely passive trustee” who failed to safeguard creditor rights in Ecuador’s recent default in 2008.
Buchheit and Gulati (2009) provide an account of Ecuador’s said default, which was clearly not of the distress type.
These arguments are developed more fully in Häseler (2008).
Bloomberg’s definition of “international” refers to the bonds that are issued on non-domestic markets. For the purpose of this study and throughout the literature, “international” means that the bonds are governed by laws other than those of the issuing country. Adjustments were made to account for the difference in definitions.
For example, Becker et al. (2001) use only bonds from countries rated A1/A+ or below.
If the markets care about such subtle differences in contract terms, they will be aware of them, given the coverage in trade publications (Buchheit 2007). The impact of this re-coding on the subsequent regressions is, however, negligible because at most two of such bonds carry sufficient information to be included in any given regression.
This refers to all bonds issued between 2000 and 2008 whose governance structure could be ascertained.
The most important contributions to that literature are discussed in Häseler (2009).
Becker et al. (2001) omit such ‘exotic’ bonds from the sample. It is probably best to include them as long as their particularities can be reasonably well modelled.
The spread on a bond in default, tautologically, does not reflect default risk. Such bonds are therefore excluded from this part of the analysis.
Thanks to Daniel Rubinfeld for suggestion this approach. Strictly speaking, though, the probability of being in default at the time of download is again only an approximation of the probability of default, or in other words, of being in default at any point during the bond’s life. The two concepts are equivalent only if the time spent in default does not differ systematically across different groups of bonds. But since the probability of default and the time spent in default are both ‘bads’, the distinction is not that crucial from a policy perspective.
Michael Chamberlin in correspondence with the author.
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Acknowledgments
I am indebted for support to Hans-Bernd Schäfer, Thomas Eger, Robert Cooter, and to the German Academic Exchange Service. Thanks for help and comments go to Richard Buxbaum, Barry Eichengreen, Mitu Gulati, Ashoka Mody, Dan Rubinfeld, Florian Lohff, Sang-Min Park, Stefan Voigt, and in particular to Jan-Philipp Rock, Lee Buchheit and Michael Chamberlin.
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Häseler, S. Trustees versus fiscal agents and default risk in international sovereign bonds. Eur J Law Econ 34, 425–448 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-010-9208-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-010-9208-5