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Childhood Leukaemia Incidence in Hungary, 1973–2002. Interpolation Model for Analysing the Possible Effects of the Chernobyl Accident

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Abstract

The incidence of childhood leukaemia in Hungary has yet to be reported, although data are available since the early 70s. The Hungarian data therefore cover the time before and after the Chernobyl nuclear accident (1986). The aim of this study was to assess the effects of the Chernobyl accident on childhood leukaemia incidence in Hungary. A population-based study was carried out using data of the National Paediatric Cancer Registry of Hungary from 1973 to 2002. The total number of cases was 2204. To test the effect of the Chernobyl accident the authors applied a new approach called ‘Hypothesized Impact Period Interpolation’-model, which takes into account the increasing trend of childhood leukaemia incidence and the hypothesized exposure and latency times. The incidence of leukaemia in the age group 0–14 varied between 33.2 and 39.4 per million person-years along the observed 30 year period, and the incidence of childhood leukaemia showed a moderate increase of 0.71% annually (p=0.0105). In the period of the hypothesized impact of the Chernobyl accident the incidence rate was elevated by 2.5% (95% CI: −8.1%; +14.3%), but this change was not statistically significant (p=0.663). The age standardised incidence, the age distribution, the gender ratio, and the magnitude of increasing trend of childhood leukaemia incidence in Hungary were similar to other European countries. Applying the presented interpolation method the authors did not find a statistically significant increase in the leukaemia incidence in the period of the hypothesized impact of the Chernobyl accident.

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Abbreviations

ALL:

acute lymphoid leukaemia

AML:

acute myeloid leukaemia

AUL:

acute undifferentiated leukaemia

CI:

confidence interval

CML:

chronic myeloid leukaemia

HIP:

hypothesized impact period

HIPI model:

hypothesized impact period interpolation model

HnIP:

hypothesized non-impact period

ICD-O-2:

international classification of diseases for Oncology 2nd edition

IRR:

incidence rate ratio

NTLM:

no threshold linear model

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Medicine, 2nd Department of Paediatrics, National Paediatric Cancer Registry of Hungary, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary

    Szabolcs Török, Gábor Borgulya, Zsuzsanna Jakab, Dezsö Schuler & György Fekete

  2. Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Hygiene, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary

    Péter Lobmayer

Authors
  1. Szabolcs Török
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  2. Gábor Borgulya
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  3. Péter Lobmayer
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  4. Zsuzsanna Jakab
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  5. Dezsö Schuler
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  6. György Fekete
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Correspondence to Szabolcs Török.

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Török, S., Borgulya, G., Lobmayer, P. et al. Childhood Leukaemia Incidence in Hungary, 1973–2002. Interpolation Model for Analysing the Possible Effects of the Chernobyl Accident. Eur J Epidemiol 20, 899–906 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-005-2340-9

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