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Relationships Between Probability Estimates, Cost Estimates, and Social Anxiety During CBT for Social Anxiety Disorder

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Abstract

The present study examined the reciprocal relationships between probability estimates, cost estimates, and social anxiety during a 12-week course of cognitive-behaviour therapy (CBT) for social anxiety disorder (SAD). One hundred and sixty-three individuals with a principal diagnosis of SAD completed a weekly tracking measure that included questions about probability and cost estimates for negative consequences and current levels of social anxiety relating to a hypothetical speech task. Paired-samples t tests revealed that these variables changed from pre-to-post treatment. Cross-lagged path analyses revealed that cost estimates predicted subsequent changes in social anxiety levels early in treatment, over and above previous anxiety ratings, while probability estimates predicted subsequent levels of social anxiety at the final stages of treatment, over and above previous anxiety ratings. Overall, the results indicated that (1) cost bias early in treatment predicts subsequent social anxiety levels, and (2) both probability and cost estimates seem to play important, but seemingly independent, roles as mechanisms of change in CBT for SAD.

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Notes

  1. n = 22 participants were included in Rapee et al. (2009); n = 141 participants were included in Rapee et al. (2013).

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Acknowledgments

The research was supported in part by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC Project Grant 192107; NHMRC Project Grant 434213). We thank Idan Aderka for statistical advice.

Conflict of Interest

Bree Gregory, Lorna Peters, Maree J. Abbott, Jonathan E. Gaston, and Ronald M. Rapee declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Informed Consent

All procedures were in accordance with the ethical standards of the responsible committee on human experimentation (national and institutional). Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants in the study.

Animal Rights

No animal studies were carried out by the authors for this article.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Psychology, Centre for Emotional Health, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, 2109, Australia

    Bree Gregory, Lorna Peters, Jonathan E. Gaston & Ronald M. Rapee

  2. School of Psychology, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia

    Maree J. Abbott

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  1. Bree Gregory
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  2. Lorna Peters
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  3. Maree J. Abbott
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  4. Jonathan E. Gaston
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  5. Ronald M. Rapee
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Correspondence to Lorna Peters.

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Gregory, B., Peters, L., Abbott, M.J. et al. Relationships Between Probability Estimates, Cost Estimates, and Social Anxiety During CBT for Social Anxiety Disorder. Cogn Ther Res 39, 636–645 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10608-015-9692-6

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