Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has put a lot of efforts to describe uncertainties and to judge the confidence level of its major conclusions. Despite a guidance to communicate uncertainty, the assignment of confidence is not sufficiently clear and, thus, hard to be reproduced by the extern community. By conducting a synthesis assessment about the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian water resources, we identified an opportunity to illustrate the characterization of evidence as adopted in IPCC reports. We propose a method to describe the evidence from model outputs wherein the quality and amount of studies, as well as the consistency among their conclusions, are subject of a transparent rating procedure. In summary, the more comprehensive the study in sampling uncertainties, the higher its quality. Likewise, the amount and consistency among conclusions is assigned in a systematic way. The method is applied for synthesizing a collection of 42 peer-reviewed articles. It reveals important aspects about the evidence of the potential impacts of climate change in the Brazilian water resources, such as changes into a drier hydrological regime. However, the use of multi-model ensemble, the evaluation of models, and the observational data is limited. The proposed method enables consistent communication of the degree of evidence in a transparent, traceable, and comprehensive fashion. The method can be used as a tool to support experts on their judgment. The approach is reproducible and can guide synthesis work not only in Brazil but anywhere else.
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Abbreviations
- ALT:
-
Atlântico Leste
- AMZ:
-
Amazônica
- AOC:
-
Atlântico Nordeste Ocidental
- AOR:
-
Atlântico Nordeste Oriental
- ASD:
-
Atlântico Sudeste
- ASU:
-
Atlântico Sul
- BC:
-
Bias correction
- BCS:
-
Bias correction score
- CBC:
-
Score of the calibration criteria of BC
- CDS:
-
Score of the calibration criteria of DS
- CHM:
-
Score of the calibration criteria of HM
- CM:
-
Climate modeling
- CMIP3:
-
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3
- CMIP5:
-
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
- CMS:
-
Climate modeling score
- DS:
-
Downscaling
- DSS:
-
Downscaling score
- ECM:
-
Score of ensemble size of CM
- EDS:
-
Score of the ensemble size of DS
- EHM:
-
Score of the ensemble size of HM
- ES:
-
Emission/radiative forcing scenarios
- ESD:
-
Empirical statistical downscaling
- ESS:
-
Emission/radiative forcing scenarios score
- GCM:
-
Global climate model
- HM:
-
Hydrological modeling
- HMS:
-
Hydrological modeling score
- IPCC:
-
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- OBC:
-
Score of observational network density of rainfall data of BC
- ODH:
-
Score of observational network density of river discharge data of HM
- ODS:
-
Score of observational network density of rainfall data of DS
- OND:
-
Observational network density
- ORH:
-
Score of observational network density of rainfall data of HM
- PNB:
-
Parnaíba
- PRG:
-
Paraguai
- PRN:
-
Paraná
- Qmax:
-
Maximum discharge
- Qmean:
-
Mean discharge
- Qmin:
-
Minimum discharge
- QS:
-
Quality score
- RCM:
-
Regional climate model
- RCP:
-
Representative concentration pathways
- RES:
-
Score of range of ES
- SFO:
-
São Francisco
- SRES:
-
Special report on emissions scenarios
- TBC:
-
Score of the type of BC
- TES:
-
Score of type of ES
- THM:
-
Score of the type of HM
- TOC:
-
Tocantins-Araguaia
- URU:
-
Uruguai
- VBC:
-
Score of the validation criteria of BC
- VCM:
-
Score of version of CM
- VDS:
-
Score of the validation criteria of DS
- VHM:
-
Score of the validation criteria of HM
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Funding
The authors acknowledge the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for funding this study (Grant Numbers: 150768/2017-6 and 159528/2018-6)
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Borges de Amorim, P., Chaffe, P.B. Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources. Climatic Change 155, 37–57 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02430-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02430-9