Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate affects severity and altitudinal distribution of outbreaks in an eruptive bark beetle

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Temperature warming and the increased frequency of climatic anomalies are expected to trigger bark beetle outbreaks with potential severe consequences on forest ecosystems. We characterized the combined effects of climatic factors and density-dependent feedbacks on forest damage caused by Ips typographus (L.), one of the most destructive pests of European spruce forests, and tested whether climate modified the interannual variation in the altitudinal outbreak range of the species. We analyzed a 16-year time-series from the European Alps of timber loss in Picea abies Karsten forests due to I. typographus attacks and used a discrete population model and an information theoretic approach to compare multiple competing hypotheses. The occurrence of dry summers combined with warm temperatures appeared as the main abiotic triggers of severity of outbreaks. We also found an endogenous negative feedback with a 2-year lag suggesting a potential important role of natural enemies. Forest damage per hectare averaged 7-fold higher where spruce was planted in sites warmer than those within its historical climatic range. Dry summers, but not temperature, was related to upward shifts in the altitudinal outbreak range. Considering the potential increased susceptibility of spruce forests to insect outbreaks due to climate change, there is growing value in mitigating these effects through sustainable forest management, which includes avoiding the promotion of spruce outside its historical climatic range.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H et al (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For Ecol Manag 259:660–684

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Annila E (1969) Influence of temperature upon development and voltinism of Ips typographus L. (Coleoptera, Scolytidae). Ann Zool Fenn 6:161–298

    Google Scholar 

  • Ayres MP, Lombardero MJ (2000) Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. Sci Tot Environ 262:263–286

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baier P, Führer E, Kirisits T, Rosner S (2002) Comparison of defence reactions of Norway spruce against bark beetles and the associated fungus Ceratocystis polonica in secondary pure and mixed species stands. For Ecol Manag 159:73–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baier P, Pennerstorfer J, Schopf A (2007) PHENIPS—a comprehensive phenology model of Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytinae) as a tool for hazard rating of bark beetle infestation. For Ecol Manag 249:171–186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bakke A (1992) Monitoring bark beetle populations: effects of temperature. J Appl Entomol 114:208–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID et al (2002) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Global Change Biol 8:1–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barton K (2010) MuMIn: Multi-model inference R package [version 01317]

  • Battisti A, Stastny M, Buffo E, Larsson S (2006) A rapid altitudinal range expansion in the pine processionary moth produced by the 2003 climatic anomaly. Global Change Biol 12:662–671

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bentz BJ, Régnière J, Fettig CJ, Hansen EM, Hayes JL, Hicke JA, Kelsey RG, Negrón JF, Seybold SJ (2010) Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: direct and indirect effects. BioScience 60:602–613

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breshears DD, Myers OB, Meyer CW, Barnes FJ, Zou CB, Allen CD, McDowell NG, Pockman WT (2009) Tree die-off in response to global change-type drought: mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements. Front Ecol Environ 7:185–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Dolězal P, Sehnal F (2007) Effects of photoperiod and temperature on the development and diapause of the bark beetle Ips typographus. J Appl Entomol 131:165–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Faccoli M (2002) Winter mortality in sub-corticicolous populations of Ips typographus (Coleoptera, Scolytidae) and its parasitoids in the south-eastern Alps. J Pest Sci 75:62–68

    Google Scholar 

  • Faccoli M (2009) Effect of weather on Ips typographus (Coleoptera Curculionidae) phenology, voltinism, and associated spruce mortality in the Southeastern Alps. Environ Entomol 38:307–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Faccoli M, Bernardinelli I (2011) Breeding performance of the second generation in some bivoltine populations of Ips typographus (Coleoptera Curculionidae) in the south-eastern Alps. J Pest Sci 84:15–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Faccoli M, Stergulc F (2004) Ips typographus (L.) pheromone trapping in south Alps: spring catches determine damage thresholds. J Appl Entomol 128:307–311

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Franklin A, de Canniere C, Grégoire J-C (2004) Can sales of infested timber be used to quantify attacks by Ips typographus (Coleoptera, Scolytidae)? A pilot study from Belgium. Ann For Sci 61:477–480

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Friedenberg NA, Sarkar S, Kouchoukos N, Billings RF, Ayres MP (2008) Temperature extremes, density dependence, and southern pine beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) population dynamics in east Texas. Environ Entomol 37:650–659

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, p 996

    Google Scholar 

  • Jactel H, Petit J, Desprez-Loustau M-L, Delzon S, Piou D, Battisti A, Koricheva J (2012) Drought effects on damage by forest insects and pathogens: a meta-analysis. Global Change Biol 18:267–276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jönsson AM, Appelberg G, Harding S, Bärring L (2009) Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus. Global Change Biol 15:486–499

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jönsson AM, Harding S, Krokene P, Lange H, Lindelöw Å, Økland B, Ravn HP, Schroeder LM (2011) Modelling the potential impact of global warming on Ips typographus voltinism and reproductive diapauses. Clim Change 109:695–718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kausrud K, Økland B, Skarpaas O, Grégoire J-C, Erbilgin N, Chr Stenseth N (2011) Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species. Biol Rev 87:34–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klapwijk MJ, Ayres MP, Battisti A, Larsson S (2012) Assessing the impact of climate change on outbreak potential. In: Barbosa P, Schultz JC, Letourneau D (eds) Insect outbreaks revisited, 2nd edn. Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Koštál V, Doležal P, Rozsypal J, Moravcová M, Zahradníčková H, Šimek P (2011) Physiological and biochemical analysis of overwintering and cold tolerance in two central European populations of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus. J Insect Physiol 57:1136–1146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lange H, Økland B, Krokene P (2006) Thresholds in the life cycle of the spruce bark beetle under climate change. InterJ Complex Syst 1648:1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Lenton TM (2011) Early warning of climate tipping points. Nat Clim Change 1:201–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Littell JS, Oneil EE, McKenzie D, Hicke JA, Lutz JA, Norheim RA, Elsner MM (2010) Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA. Clim Change 102:129–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Logan JA, Powell JA (2001) Ghost forests, global warming and the mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Am Entomol 47:160–173

    Google Scholar 

  • Logan JA, Macfarlane WW, Willcox L (2010) Whitebark pine vulnerability to climate-driven mountain pine beetle disturbance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Ecol Appl 20:895–902

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lombardero MJ, Ayres MP, Lorio PL Jr, Ruel JJ (2000a) Environmental effects on constitutive and inducible resin defenses of loblolly pine. Ecol Lett 3:329–339

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lombardero MJ, Ayres MP, Ayres BD, Reeve JD (2000b) Cold tolerance of four species of bark beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) in North America. Environ Entomol 29:421–432

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martinson S, Hofstetter RW, Ayres MP (2007) Why does longleaf pine have low susceptibility to southern pine beetle? Can J For Res 37:1966–1977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Netherer S, Pennerstorfer S (2001) Parameters relevant for modelling the potential development of Ips typographus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Integr Pest Manag Rev 6:177–184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Økland B, Berryman A (2004) Resource dynamics plays a key role in regional fluctuations of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus. Agric For Entomol 6:141–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Økland B, Bjørnstad ON (2006) A resource-depletion model of forest insect outbreaks. Ecology 87:283–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • R Development Core Team (2011) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://wwwR-projectorg

  • Raffa KF, Aukema BH, Bentz BJ, Carroll AL, Hicke JA, Turner MG, Romme WH (2008) Cross-scale drivers of natural disturbances prone to anthropogenic amplification: the dynamics of bark beetle eruptions. BioScience 58:501–517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rouault G, Candau JN, Lieutier F (2006) Effects of drought and heat on forest insect populations in relation to the 2003 drought in Western Europe. Ann For Sci 63:613–624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Safranyik L, Carroll AL, Régnière J, Langor DW, Riel WG, Shore TL, Peter B, Cooke BJ, Nealis VG, Taylor SW (2010) Potential for range expansion of mountain pine beetle into the boreal forest of North America. Can Entomol 142:415–442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmidt-Vogt H (1977) Die Fichte. Verlag Paul Parey, Hamburg, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Schroeder LM (2007) Escape in space from enemies: a comparison between stands with and without enhanced densities of the spruce bark beetle. Agric For Entomol 9:85–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seidl R, Schelhaas MJ, Lindner M, Lexer MJ (2009) Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies. Reg Environ Change 9:101–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seidl R, Rammer W, Lexer MJ (2011) Climate change vulnerability of sustainable forest management in the Eastern Alps. Clim Change 106:225–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seppälä R, Buck A, Katila P (2009) Adaptation of forests and people to climate change: a global assessment report. International Union of Forest Research Organizations, Helsinki

    Google Scholar 

  • Tran JK, Ylioja T, Billings R, Régnière J, Ayres MP (2007) Impact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of Dendroctonus frontalis (Coleoptera: Scolytinae). Ecol Appl 17:882–899

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wermelinger B (2002) Development and distribution of predators and parasitoids during two consecutive years of an Ips typographus (Col., Scolytidae) infestation. J Appl Entomol 126:521–527

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wermelinger B (2004) Ecology and management of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus—a review of recent research. For Ecol Manag 202:67–82

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wermelinger B, Seifert M (1998) Analysis of the temperature dependent development of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytidae). J Appl Entomol 122:185–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank Fabio Stergulc for its constructive comments on the manuscript, and the “Direzione Centrale delle Risorse Agricole, Naturali, Forestali e della Montagna − Regione Autonoma Friuli-Venezia Giulia” for providing raw data from the BAUSINVE project. The research was supported by the BACCARA (‘Biodiversity And Climate Change, A Risk Analysis’) project funded from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (grant agreement n°226299). M.F. was partially funded by the Italian national project “2010—CPDA104007: Study of the response mechanisms to climatic change in model forest insects”. Additional support was provided by NRI/AFRI 2009-65104-05731.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. DAFNAE, University of Padova, viale dell’Università 16, 35020, Legnaro, Padova, Italy

    Lorenzo Marini, Andrea Battisti & Massimo Faccoli

  2. Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7044, 750 07, Uppsala, Sweden

    Lorenzo Marini

  3. Department of Biological Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, 03755, USA

    Matthew P. Ayres

Authors
  1. Lorenzo Marini
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Matthew P. Ayres
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Andrea Battisti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Massimo Faccoli
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Lorenzo Marini.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESM 1

(PDF 105 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Marini, L., Ayres, M.P., Battisti, A. et al. Climate affects severity and altitudinal distribution of outbreaks in an eruptive bark beetle. Climatic Change 115, 327–341 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0463-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0463-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation