Abstract
This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 450 ppm (roughly 530–550 ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450 ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ang BW (2004) Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy: which is the preferred method? Energy Policy 32:1131–1139
Bauer N, Baumstark L, Leimbach M (2011) The REMIND-R model: The Role of Renewables in the low-carbon transformation. Clim Change (this issue)
Bosetti V, Carraro C, Galeotti M, Massetti E, Tavoni M (2006) WITCH: a world induced technical change hybrid model. Energy J 27(Special Issue 2):13–38
Bosetti V, Carraro C, Galeotti, Massetti E, Tavoni M (2007) The WITCH model: Structure, Baseline and Solution. FEEM Working Paper N. 10.2007, Milan
CCSP (2007): Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1a
Clarke L, Edmonds J, Krey V, Richels R, Rose S, Tavoni M (2009) International climate policy architectures: overview of the EMF22 international scenarios. Energy Econ 31:S64-S81
De Cian E, Bosetti V, Tavoni M (2011) Technological innovation and diffusion in “less than ideal” climate policies: an assessment with the WITCH model. Clim Change (this issue)
Edenhofer O, Lessmann K, Kemfert C, Grubb M, Köhler J (2006) Induced technological change: exploring its implications for the economics of athmospheric stabilization. Synthesis Report from Innovation Modeling Comparison Project. Energy J 27(Special Issue 2):57–107
Edenhofer O, Knopf B, Barker T, Baumstark L, Bellevrat E, Chateau B, Criqui P, Isaac M, Kitous A, Kypreos S, Leimbach M, Lessmann K, Magné B, Scrieciu S, Turton H, van Vuuren DP (2010) The economics of low stabili-zation: model comparison of mitigation strategies and costs. Energy J 31(Special Issue 1):11–48
Fisher BS, Nakicenovic N et al. (2007) Issues related to mitigation in the long term context. In: Metz B, Davidson OR, Bosch PR, Dave R, Meyer LA (eds) Climate change 2007: mitigation. Contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the inter-governmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Hotelling H (1931) The economics of exhaustible resources. J Polit Econ 39:137–175
International Energy Agency IEA (2008) World Energy Outlook 2008. IEA, Paris
International Energy Agency IEA (2009) World Energy Outlook 2009. IEA, Paris
IPCC (2007a) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2007b) Climate change 2007: mitigation. In: Metz B, Davidson OR, Bosch PR, Dave R, Meyer LA (eds) Contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jakob M, Bosetti V, Waisman H, De Cian E, Steckel J, Leimbach M, Baumstark L (2009) The RECIPE reference scenarios. RECIPE Backgound Paper. http://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/jakob/publications/recipe-baseline-scenarios
Jakob M, Luderer G, Steckel J, Bosetti V, Tavoni M, Waisman H (2011) Time to act now? Assessing the costs of delaying climate measures and benefits of early action. Clim Change (this issue)
Kaya Y (1990) Impact of carbon dioxide emission control on GNP growth: interpretation of proposed scenarios. Paper presented to the IPCC Energy and Industry subgroup, Responses strategies working group, Paris (mimeo)
Klein D, Bauer N, Bodirsky B, Dietrich JP, Popp A (2011) Bio-IGCC with CCS as a long-term mitigation option in a coupled energy-system and land-use model. Energy Procedia 4:2933–2940
Knopf B et al. (2009) The Economics of low stabilization: impolications for technological change and policy. In: Hulme M, Neufeldt H (eds) Making climate change work for us—ADAM synthesis book. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Leimbach M, Bauer N, Baumstark L, Edenhofer O (2010) Mitigation costs in a globalized world: climate policy analysis with ReMIND-R. Environ Model Assess 15(3):155–173. doi:10.1007/s10666-009-9204-8
Luderer G et al. (2011) The regional distribution of mitigation costs—a tale of scarcity rents. Clim Change (this issue)
Luckow P, Wise MA, Dooley JJ, Kim SH (2010) Large-scale utilization of biomass energy and carbon dioxide capture and storage in the transport and electricity sectors under stringent CO2 concentration limit scenarios. Int J Greenhouse Gas Control. doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2010.06.002
Nakicenovic N et al. (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. Working Group III, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 595
Nordhaus WD, Boyer J (2000) Warming the world. MIT, Cambridge
Olivier JGJ, Peters JAHW (2010) No growth in total global CO2 emissions in 2009. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven
Petschel-Held G, Schellnhuber HJ, Bruckner T, Toth FL, Hasselmann K (1999) The tolerable windows approach: theoretical and methodological foundations. Clim Change 41:303–331
Raupach, MR, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Quéré C, Canadell JG, Klepper G, Field CB (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:10288–10293
Sassi O, Crassous R, Hourcade JC, Gitz V, Waisman H, Guivarch C (2010) IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways. Int J Global Environ Iss 10:5–24
Tavoni M et al. (2011) Technology option values and technological change towards a low carbon economy. Clim Change (this issue)
Van Vuuren DP, Bellevrat E, Kitous A, Issac M (2010) Bio-energy use and low stabilization scenarios. Energy J 31(Special Issue 1):193–221
Waisman H, Hourcade JC, Guivarch C, Grazi F (2011) The IMACLIM-R model: the role of infrastructures, technical inertia and imperfect foresight in the costs of low carbon futures. Clim Change (this issue)
Weyant JP, de la Chesnaye FC, Blanford GJ (2006) Overview of EMF21: multigas mitigation and climate policy. Energy J 27(Special Issue3):1–32
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Luderer, G., Bosetti, V., Jakob, M. et al. The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison. Climatic Change 114, 9–37 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0105-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0105-x