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Predicting the potential invasion of kudzu bug, Megacopta cribraria (Heteroptera: Plataspidae), in North and South America and determining its climatic preference

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Abstract

Biological invasions have long placed challenges on ecosystems, agricultural production, and human health. Modeling potential invasion of an introduced organism becomes a critical tool for early management of damaging species, such as kudzu bug, Megacopta cribraria (F.) (Hemiptera:Heteroptera:Plataspidae). Since it was first found in the United States in 2009, kudzu bug has spread rapidly, economically impacted agricultural production, and became a household pest. To better predict the potential invasion of kudzu bug in North and South America, we used the species distribution models Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (Maxent). We used the D metric to test for niche equivalency and similarity between native and invaded populations of kudzu bug. We found that kudzu bugs currently occupied unequal environmental space between the two ranges. Therefore, distribution models using GARP and Maxent were constructed using occurrences in both native and invaded ranges. Area under the curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS), and omission rate (OR) were used to evaluate and compare the models. Results indicated both models had good performance, but Maxent (AUC = 0.971, TSS = 0.946, OR = 0.019) performed better than GARP (AUC = 0.922, TSS = 0.860, OR = 0.037). This research confirmed the effectiveness of using occurrence data in both ranges to predict potential invasions. Kudzu bugs prefer warm (annual mean temperature around 15 °C) and humid (annual mean precipitation around 1300 mm) regions. Distribution models generated by both methods indicated similar regions with high invasion risk. Management programs that include quarantine and prevention measures are suggested for these regions to avoid outbreaks of kudzu bug.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the China Scholarship Council for their financial support of W. Liang’s academic program. We would like to extend our appreciation towards Dr. Gengping Zhu of Tianjin Normal University, China, for providing us with his kudzu bug geographic presence data for Asia. For critical suggestions and discussion, we thank Dr. Monica Papeş of the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. We also thank the Newton High Performance Computer (HPC) Program at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, for providing use of their system. Last but not least, we are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on earlier draft of this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Entomology and Plant Pathology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, 2505 E. J. Chapman Drive, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USA

    Wanwan Liang, Scott Stewart & Jerome Grant

  2. Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Burchfiel Geography Bldg, 1000 Phillip Fulmer Way, Knoxville, TN, 37916, USA

    Liem Tran & Robert Washington-Allen

  3. National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, 1122 Volunteer Boulevard, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USA

    Gregory Wiggins

  4. U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 4700 Old Kingston Pike, Knoxville, TN, 37803, USA

    James Vogt

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  1. Wanwan Liang
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Correspondence to Wanwan Liang.

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Liang, W., Tran, L., Washington-Allen, R. et al. Predicting the potential invasion of kudzu bug, Megacopta cribraria (Heteroptera: Plataspidae), in North and South America and determining its climatic preference. Biol Invasions 20, 2899–2913 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-018-1743-y

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