Abstract
Childhood obesity is a significant public health problem requiring innovative solutions. While recent reviews indicate that some policies show promise, there is a lack of information regarding which policies, and policy combinations, work best. Low-nutrition, energy-dense foods and beverages such as sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been identified as a major contributor to the problem. The purpose of this paper is to use simulation modeling to show how changes in three categories of SSB policies—school nutrition, school-based education, and taxes—impact SSB and other food consumption. The model shows that policies directed at SSBs, particularly tax hikes, could lead to substantial reductions in the number of calories consumed by youth. The estimates, however, are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. Estimates from school-based nutrition and school-based education policies, while also helping to reduce caloric intake, generally show smaller effects than tax policies and considerable variation around parameter estimates for individual and combined policies. We conclude with a discussion of the limits of the model, and suggest where additional information is needed. Limitations notwithstanding, simulation modeling is a promising methodology that can help advance our understanding of policy effects, thereby helping policymakers to better formulate effective policies to reduce obesity prevalence and the associated social harms.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Andreyeva, T., Chaloupka, F. J., & Brownell, K. D. (2011). Estimating the potential of taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages to reduce consumption and generate revenue. Preventive Medicine, 52(6), 413–416.
Andreyeva, T., Long, M. W., & Brownell, K. D. (2010). The impact of food prices on consumption: A systematic review of research on the price elasticity of demand for food. American Journal of Public Health, 100(20), 216–222.
Auld, M. C., & Powell, L. M. (2009). Economics of food energy density and adolescent body weight. Economica, 76(304), 719–740.
Bellisle, F., & Rolland-Cachera, M. F. (2001). How sugar-containing drinks might increase adiposity in children. Lancet, 357(9255), 490–491.
Besley, T. J., & Rosen, H. S. (1999). Sales taxes and prices: An empirical analysis. National Tax Journal, 52(2), 157–178. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(00)04034-4.
Blum, J. E., Davee, A. M., Beaudoin, C. M., Jenkins, P. L., Kaley, L. A., & Wigand, D. A. (2008). Reduced availability of sugar-sweetened beverages and diet soda has a limited impact on beverage consumption patterns in Maine high school youth. Journal of Nutrition Education and Behavior, 40(6), 341–347.
Briefel, R. R., Crepinsek, M. K., Cabili, C., Wilson, A., & Gleason, P. M. (2009a). School food environments and practices affect dietary behaviors of US public school children. Journal of American Diet Association, 109(2 Suppl), S91–S107.
Briefel, R. R., Wilson, A., & Gleason, P. M. (2009b). Consumption of low-nutrient, energy-dense foods and beverages at school, home, and other locations among school lunch participants and nonparticipants. Journal of American Diet Association, 109(2 Suppl), S79–S90.
Brown, I. J., Stamler, J., Van Horn, L., Robertson, C. E., Chan, Q., Dyer, A. R., et al. (2011). Sugar-sweetened beverage, sugar intake of individuals, and their blood pressure: International study of macro/micronutrients and blood pressure. Hypertension, 57(4), 695–701.
Brown, T., & Summerbell, C. (2009). Systematic review of school-based interventions that focus on changing dietary intake and physical activity levels to prevent childhood obesity: An update to the obesity guidance produced by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. Obesity Reviews, 10(1), 110–141.
Brownell, K. D., Farley, T., Willett, W. C., Popkin, B. M., Chaloupka, F. J., Thompson, J. W., et al. (2009). The public health and economic benefits of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages. The New England Journal of Medicine, 361(16), 1599–1605.
Butte, N. F., Christiansen, E., & Sorensen, T. I. (2007). Energy imbalance underlying the development of childhood obesity. Obesity (Silver Spring), 15(12), 3056–3066.
Butte, N. F., & Ellis, K. J. (2003). Comment on “obesity and the environment: Where do we go from here?”. Science, 301(5633), 598. Author reply 598.
Chaloupka, F. J., & Powell, L. M. (2009). Price, availability, and youth obesity: Evidence from bridging the gap. Preventing Chronic Disease, 6(3), A93.
Chen, L., Appel, L. J., Loria, C., Lin, P. H., Champagne, C. M., Elmer, P. J., et al. (2009). Reduction in consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages is associated with weight loss: The PREMIER trial. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 89(5), 1299–1306.
Chriqui, J. F., Eidson, S. S., Bates, H., Kowalczyk, S., & Chaloupka, F. J. (2008). State sales tax rates for soft drinks and snacks sold through grocery stores and vending machines, 2007. Journal of Public Health Policy, 29(2), 226–249.
Cradock, A. L., McHugh, A., Mont-Ferguson, H., Grant, L., Barrett, J. L., Wang, Y. C., et al. (2011). Effect of school district policy change on consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages among high school students, Boston, Massachusetts, 2004–2006. Preventing Chronic Disease, 8(4), A74.
Cullen, K. W., Hartstein, J., Reynolds, K. D., Vu, M., Resnicow, K., Greene, N., et al. (2007). Improving the school food environment: Results from a pilot study in middle schools. Journal of American Diet Association, 107(3), 484–489.
Cullen, K. W., Watson, K., & Zakeri, I. (2008). Improvements in middle school student dietary intake after implementation of the Texas Public School Nutrition Policy. American Journal of Public Health, 98(1), 111–117.
Cullen, K. W., Watson, K., Zakeri, I., & Ralston, K. (2006). Exploring changes in middle-school student lunch consumption after local school food service policy modifications. Public Health Nutrition, 9(6), 814–820.
Cullen, K. W., & Zakeri, I. (2004). Fruits, vegetables, milk, and sweetened beverages consumption and access to a la carte/snack bar meals at school. American Journal of Public Health, 94(3), 463–467.
Dharmasena, S., & Capps, O. (2009). Demand interrelationships of at-home nonalcoholic beverage consumption in the United States. Presented at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association’s 2009 AAEA & ACCI Joint Annual Meeting, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 26–29, 2009.
Dharmasena, S., & Capps, O., Jr. (2011). Intended and unintended consequences of a proposed national tax on sugar-sweetened beverages to combat the US obesity problem. Health Economics,. doi:10.1002/hec.1738.
DiMeglio, D. P., & Mattes, R. D. (2000). Liquid versus solid carbohydrate: Effects on food intake and body weight. International Journal of Obesity and Related Metabolic Disorders, 24(6), 794–800.
Doak, C. M., Visscher, T. L. S., Renders, C. M., & Seidell, J. C. (2006). The prevention of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents: A review of interventions and programmes. [Review]. Obesity Reviews, 7(1), 111–136.
Drewnowski, A., & Bellisle, F. (2007). Liquid calories, sugar, and body weight. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 85(3), 651–661.
Duffey, K. J., Gordon-Larsen, P., Shikany, J. M., Guilkey, D., Jacobs, D. R., Jr, & Popkin, B. M. (2010). Food price and diet and health outcomes: 20 years of the CARDIA study. Archives of Internal Medicine, 170(5), 420–426.
Duffey, K. J., & Popkin, B. M. (2007). Shifts in patterns and consumption of beverages between 1965 and 2002. Obesity (Silver Spring), 15(11), 2739–2747.
Ebbeling, C. B., Feldman, H. A., Osganian, S. K., Chomitz, V. R., Ellenbogen, S. J., & Ludwig, D. S. (2006). Effects of decreasing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on body weight in adolescents: A randomized, controlled pilot study. Pediatrics, 117(3), 673–680.
Epstein, L. H., Dearing, K. K., Handley, E. A., Roemmich, J. N., & Paluch, R. A. (2006). Relationship of mother and child food purchases as a function of price: A pilot study. [Article]. Appetite, 47(1), 115–118.
Fernandes, M. M. (2008). The effect of soft drink availability in elementary schools on consumption. Journal of American Diet Association, 108(9), 1445–1452.
Finkelstein, E. A., Zhen, C., Nonnemaker, J., & Todd, J. E. (2010). Impact of targeted beverage taxes on higher- and lower-income households. Archives of Internal Medicine, 170(22), 2028–2034.
Fletcher, J. M., Frisvold, D., & Tefft, N. (2010a). Taxing soft drinks and restricting access to vending machines to curb child obesity. Health Affairs (Millwood), 29(5), 1059–1066.
Fletcher, J. M., Frisvold, D., & Tefft, N. (2010b). The effects of soft drink taxes on child and adolescent consumption and weight outcomes. Journal of Public Economics, 94(2010), 967–974.
Flodmark, C. E., Marcus, C., & Britton, M. (2006). Interventions to prevent obesity in children and adolescents: a systematic literature review. [Review]. International Journal of Obesity, 30(4), 579–589.
Forshee, R. A., & Storey, M. L. (2004). Evaluation of the association of demographics and beverage consumption with dental caries. Food and Chemical Toxicology, 42(11), 1805–1816.
French, S. A. (2003). Pricing effects on food choices. Journal of Nutrition, 133(3), 841S–843S.
Gortmaker, S. L., Swinburn, B. A., Levy, D., Carter, R., Mabry, P. L., Finegood, D. T., et al. (2011). Changing the future of obesity: Science, policy, and action. Lancet, 378(9793), 838–847. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60815-5.
Hall, K. D. (2008). What is the required energy deficit per unit weight loss? International Journal of Obesity (London), 32(3), 573–576.
Hall, K. D., Sacks, G., Chandramohan, D., Chow, C. C., Wang, Y. C., Gortmaker, S. L., et al. (2011). Quantification of the effect of energy imbalance on bodyweight. Lancet, 378(9793), 826–837.
Hartstein, J., Cullen, K. W., Reynolds, K. D., Harrell, J., Resnicow, K., & Kennel, P. (2008). Impact of portion-size control for school a la carte items: Changes in kilocalories and macronutrients purchased by middle school students. Journal of American Diet Association, 108(1), 140–144.
Hattersley, L., Irwin, M., King, L., & Allman-Farinelli, M. (2009). Determinants and patterns of soft drink consumption in young adults: A qualitative analysis. Public Health Nutrition, 12(10), 1816–1822.
Homer, J. B., & Hirsch, G. B. (2006). System dynamics modeling for public health: Background and opportunities. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3), 452–458.
Institute of Medicine (2010). Bridging the evidence gap in obesity prevention: A framework to inform decision making.
James, J., Thomas, P., Cavan, D., & Kerr, D. (2004). Preventing childhood obesity by reducing consumption of carbonated drinks: Cluster randomized controlled trial. BMJ, 328(7450), 1237–1239.
James, J., Thomas, P., & Kerr, D. (2007). Preventing childhood obesity: Two year follow-up results from the Christchurch obesity prevention programme in schools (CHOPPS). BMJ, 335(7623), 762–765.
Johnson, D. B., Bruemmer, B., Lund, A. E., Evens, C. C., & Mar, C. M. (2009). Impact of school district sugar-sweetened beverage policies on student beverage exposure and consumption in middle schools. The Journal of Adolescent Health, 45(3 Suppl), S30–S37.
Jones, A. P., Homer, J. B., Murphy, D. L., Essien, J. D., Milstein, B., & Seville, D. A. (2006). Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3), 488–494.
Jordan, P. N., & Hall, K. D. (2008). Dynamic coordination of macronutrient balance during infant growth: Insights from a mathematical model. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 87(3), 692–703.
Kann, L., Telljohann, S. K., & Wooley, S. F. (2007). Health education: Results from the school health policies and programs study 2006. The Journal of School Health, 77(8), 408–434.
Levy, D. T., Bauer, J. E., & Lee, H. R. (2006). Simulation modeling and tobacco control: Creating more robust public health policies. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3), 494–498.
Levy, D. T., Cummings, K. M., & Hyland, A. (2000). Increasing taxes as a strategy to reduce cigarette use and deaths: Results of a simulation model. Preventive Medicine, 31(3), 279–286.
Levy, D. T., Friend, K. B., & Wang, Y. C. (2011a). A review of the literature on policies directed at the youth consumption of sugar sweetened beverages. Advances in Nutrition, 2, 182S–200S.
Levy, D. T., Gitchell, J. G., & Chaloupka, F. (2004). The effects of tobacco control policies on smoking rates: A tobacco control scorecard. Journal of Public Health Management & Practice, 10, 338–351.
Levy, D. T., Mabry, P. L., Wang, Y. C., Gortmaker, S., Huang, T. T., Marsh, T., et al. (2011b). Simulation models of obesity: A review of the literature and implications for research and policy. Obesity Reviews, 12(5), 378–394. doi:10.1111/j.1467-789X.2010.00804.x.
Lightwood, J., Bibbins-Domingo, K., Coxson, P., Wang, Y. C., Williams, L., & Goldman, L. (2009). Forecasting the future economic burden of current adolescent overweight: An estimate of the coronary heart disease policy model. American Journal of Public Health, 99(12), 2230–2237.
Lo, E., Coles, R., Humbert, M. L., Polowski, J., Henry, C. J., & Whiting, S. J. (2008). Beverage intake improvement by high school students in Saskatchewan, Canada. Nutrition Research, 28(3), 144–150.
Ludwig, D. S., Peterson, K. E., & Gortmaker, S. L. (2001). Relation between consumption of sugar-sweetened drinks and childhood obesity: A prospective, observational analysis. Lancet, 357(9255), 505–508.
Malik, V. S., Popkin, B. M., Bray, G. A., Despres, J. P., & Hu, F. B. (2010). Sugar-sweetened beverages, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease risk. Circulation, 121(11), 1356–1364.
Malik, V. S., Schulze, M. B., & Hu, F. B. (2006). Intake of sugar-sweetened beverages and weight gain: A systematic review. [Review]. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 84(2), 274–288.
Matson-Koffman, D. M., Brownstein, J. N., Neiner, J. A., & Greaney, M. L. (2005). A site-specific literature review of policy and environmental interventions that promote physical activity and nutrition for cardiovascular health: What works? [Review]. American Journal of Health Promotion, 19(3), 167–193.
Mattes, R. D. (1996). Dietary compensation by humans for supplemental energy provided as ethanol or carbohydrate in fluids. Physiological Behavior, 59(1), 179–187.
Milstein, B., Jones, A., Homer, J. B., Murphy, D., Essien, J., & Seville, D. (2007). Charting plausible futures for diabetes prevalence in the United States: A role for system dynamics simulation modeling. Preventing Chronic Disease, 4(3), A52.
O’Toole, T. P., Anderson, S., Miller, C., & Guthrie, J. (2007). Nutrition services and foods and beverages available at school: Results from the school health policies and programs study 2006. The Journal of School Health, 77(8), 500–521.
Plachta-Danielzik, S., Landsberg, B., Bosy-Westphal, A., Johannsen, M., Lange, D., & Muller, M. J. (2008). Energy gain and energy gap in normal-weight children: Longitudinal data of the KOPS. Obesity (Silver Spring), 16(4), 777–783.
Powell, L. M., Auld, M. C., Chaloupka, F. J., O’Malley, P. M., & Johnston, L. D. (2007). Access to fast food and food prices: Relationship with fruit and vegetable consumption and overweight among adolescents. Advances in Health Economics and Health Services Research, 17, 23–48.
Powell, L. M., & Chaloupka, F. J. (2009). Food prices and obesity: Evidence and policy implications for taxes and subsidies. Milbank Quarterly, 87(1), 229–257.
Powell, L. M., Chriqui, J., & Chaloupka, F. J. (2009). Associations between state-level soda taxes and adolescent body mass index. The Journal of Adolescent Health, 45(3 Suppl), S57–S63.
Schwartz, M. B., Novak, S. A., & Fiore, S. S. (2009). The impact of removing snacks of low nutritional value from middle schools. Health Education & Behavior, 36(6), 999–1011.
Seymour, J. D., Yaroch, A. L., Serdula, M., Blanck, H. M., & Khan, L. K. (2004). Impact of nutrition environmental interventions on point-of-purchase behavior in adults: A review. [Article]. Preventive Medicine, 39, S108–S136.
Shi, L. (2010). The association between the availability of sugar-sweetened beverage in school vending machines and its consumption among adolescents in California: A propensity score matching approach. Journal Environmental Public Health, 735613.
Sichieri, R., Paula Trotte, A., de Souza, R. A., & Veiga, G. V. (2009). School randomised trial on prevention of excessive weight gain by discouraging students from drinking sodas. Public Health Nutrition, 12(2), 197–202.
Smith, T. A., Lin, B. H., & Lee, J.-Y. (2010). Taxing caloric sweetened beverages: Potential effects on beverage consumption, caloric intake, and obesity. Washington, DC: US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
Sterman, J. D. (2006). Learning from evidence in a complex world. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3), 505–514.
Sturm, R., & Datar, A. (2005). Body mass index in elementary school children, metropolitan area food prices and food outlet density. Public Health, 119(12), 1059–1068.
Sturm, R., & Datar, A. (2008). Food prices and weight gain during elementary school: 5-year update. Public Health, 122(11), 1140–1143.
Sturm, R., Powell, L. M., Chriqui, J. F., & Chaloupka, F. J. (2010). Soda taxes, soft drink consumption, and children’s body mass index. Health Aff (Millwood), 29(5), 1052–1058.
Swinburn, B. A. (2008). Obesity prevention: the role of policies, laws and regulations. Australia and New Zealand Health Policy, 5, 12.
Swinburn, B. A., Jolley, D., Kremer, P. J., Salbe, A. D., & Ravussin, E. (2006). Estimating the effects of energy imbalance on changes in body weight in children. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 83(4), 859–863.
Van Meijgaard, J., Fielding, J. E., & Kominski, G. F. (2009). Assessing and forecasting population health: Integrating knowledge and beliefs in a comprehensive framework. Public Health Report, 124(6), 778–789.
Vartanian, L. R., Schwartz, M. B., & Brownell, K. D. (2007). Effects of soft drink consumption on nutrition and health: A systematic review and meta-analysis. American Journal of Public Health, 97(4), 667–675.
Wang, Y. C. (2011). The potential impact of sugar sweetened beverage Taxes in New York State Columbia (Ed.).
Wang, Y. C., Bleich, S. N., & Gortmaker, S. L. (2008). Increasing caloric contribution from sugarsweetened beverages and 100 % fruit juices among US children and adolescents, 1988–2004. Pediatrics, 121(6), e1604–e1614.
Wang, Y. C., Gortmaker, S. L., Sobol, A. M., & Kuntz, K. M. (2006). Estimating the energy gap among US children: A counterfactual approach. Pediatrics, 118(6), e1721–e1733.
Wang, Y. C., Ludwig, D. S., Sonneville, K., & Gortmaker, S. L. (2009). Impact of change in sweetened caloric beverage consumption on energy intake among children and adolescents. Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, 163(4), 336–343.
Woodward-Lopez, G., Gosliner, W., Samuels, S. E., Craypo, L., Kao, J., & Crawford, P. B. (2010). Lessons learned from evaluations of California’s statewide school nutrition standards. American Journal of Public Health, 100(11), 2137–2145.
Yamada, M., Murakami, K., Sasaki, S., Takahashi, Y., & Okubo, H. (2008). Soft drink intake is associated with diet quality even among young Japanese women with low soft drink intake. Journal of American Diet Association, 108(12), 1997–2004.
Yen, S. T., Lin, B. H., & Smallwood, D. M. (2004). Demand for nonalcoholic beverages: The case of low-income households. Agribusiness, 20(3), 309–321.
Zhen, C., Wohlgenant, M., Karns, S., & Kaufman, M. K. (2011). Habit formation and demand for sugar-sweetened beverages. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93(1), 175–193.
Zheng, Y., & Kaiser, H. M. (2008). Advertising and US nonalcoholic beverage demand. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 37, 2.
Acknowledgments
This study was funded by the Academy for Educational Development, Project #4245-01 and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Healthy Eating Research Program, Contract #63048.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Levy, D.T., Friend, K.B. Simulation Modeling of Policies Directed at Youth Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption. Am J Community Psychol 51, 299–313 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-012-9535-5
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-012-9535-5