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Future Expectations Among Adolescents: A Latent Class Analysis

  • Published:
American Journal of Community Psychology

Abstract

Future expectations have been important predictors of adolescent development and behavior. Its measurement, however, has largely focused on single dimensions and misses potentially important components. This analysis investigates whether an empirically-driven, multidimensional approach to conceptualizing future expectations can substantively contribute to our understanding of adolescent risk behavior. We use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to derive subpopulations of adolescents based on their future expectations with latent class analysis. Multinomial regression then determines which covariates from Bronfenbrenner’s ecological systems theory are associated with class membership. After modeling these covariates, we examine whether future expectations is associated with delinquency, substance use, and sexual experience. Our analysis suggests the emergence of four distinct classes labeled the Student Expectations, Student/Drinking Expectations, Victim Expectations, and Drinking/Arrest Expectations classes according to their indicator profiles. These classes differ with respect to covariates associated with membership; furthermore, they are all statistically and differentially associated with at least one adolescent risk behavior. This analysis demonstrates the additional benefit derived from using this multidimensional approach for studying future expectations. Further research is needed to investigate its stability and role in predicting adolescent risk behavior over time.

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Acknowledgments

This project was supported by Award Number T32MH020031 from the National Institute of Mental Health. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the NIMH or the NIH.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Health Policy and Administration, School of Public Health, Yale University, 2 Church Street South, New Haven, CT, 06519, USA

    Heather L. Sipsma

  2. Center for Interdisciplinary Research on AIDS, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA

    Heather L. Sipsma, Jeannette R. Ickovics & Trace S. Kershaw

  3. Department of Chronic Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA

    Jeannette R. Ickovics & Trace S. Kershaw

  4. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA

    Haiqun Lin

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  1. Heather L. Sipsma
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  2. Jeannette R. Ickovics
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  3. Haiqun Lin
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  4. Trace S. Kershaw
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Correspondence to Heather L. Sipsma.

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Sipsma, H.L., Ickovics, J.R., Lin, H. et al. Future Expectations Among Adolescents: A Latent Class Analysis. Am J Community Psychol 50, 169–181 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-011-9487-1

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