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Temporal and Spatial Variability in the Distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay: A Hindcast Study

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Abstract

Vibrio vulnificus, an estuarine bacterium, is the causative agent of seafood-related gastroenteritis, primary septicemia, and wound infections worldwide. It occurs as part of the normal microflora of coastal marine environments and can be isolated from water, sediment, and oysters. Hindcast prediction was undertaken to determine spatial and temporal variability in the likelihood of occurrence of V. vulnificus in surface waters of the Chesapeake Bay. Hindcast predictions were achieved by forcing a multivariate habitat suitability model with simulated sea surface temperature and salinity in the Bay for the period between 1991 and 2005 and the potential hotspots of occurrence of V. vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay were identified. The likelihood of occurrence of V. vulnificus during high and low rainfall years was analyzed. From results of the study, it is concluded that hindcast prediction yields an improved understanding of environmental conditions associated with occurrence of V. vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay.

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Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Matt Rhodes in the development of the V. vulnificus empirical habitat suitability model (NOAA Technical Memorandum NOS NCCOS 112). This work was supported in part by National Institutes of Health-Fogarty International Center Grant No. 1RC1TW008587-01, National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant No. 0813066, National Institutes of Health Grant No. 1 R01 A139129-01, and Distinguished Scholar in Oceans and Human Health, NOAA Grant No. SO660009 for the Advanced Study Institute for Earth System Prediction. Raghu Murtugudde acknowledges the Chesapeake Bay grant from NOAA and the generous support of the Divecha Center for Climate Change, IISc-Bangalore and IITM-Pune.

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  1. Guillaume Constantin de Magny

    Present address: MIVEGEC (UMR 5290 CNRS-IRD-UM1), Centre de recherche IRD, Montpellier, France

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

    Vinita Banakar & Raghu Murtugudde

  2. University of Maryland Institute for Advanced Computer Studies, College Park, MD, USA

    Guillaume Constantin de Magny & Rita R. Colwell

  3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, Cooperative Oxford Laboratory, Oxford, MD, USA

    John Jacobs & Robert J. Wood

  4. Maryland Pathogen Research Institute, University of Maryland, 3101, Biomolecular Sciences Bldg., #296, College Park, MD, 20742, USA

    Vinita Banakar, Anwar Huq & Rita R. Colwell

  5. Department of Environment Health, John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA

    Rita R. Colwell

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  1. Vinita Banakar
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  2. Guillaume Constantin de Magny
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Correspondence to Rita R. Colwell.

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Figure S1

A) Mean differences two by two of the mean probability of V. vulnificus in the three hotspot areas in 1991. B, C, and D are the mean differences and standard deviations drawn in solid and dashed line, respectively (TIFF 1107 kb)

Figure S2

Distance of the mean salinity to the optimal salinity (SALopt = 11.5 ppt, red line) at the three “hotspots”. The salinity of the Upper Bay and West estuaries during 1991 is around the optimal salinity whereas at the Mid Bay, the salinity was always higher than the optimal salinity throughout the year (TIFF 90 kb)

Figure S3

Annual anomaly of Vibrio vulnificus probability for the period between 1991 and 2005 in the upper bay, Mid-Bay, and Western estuaries (TIFF 949 kb)

Supplementary material 4 (DOC 24 kb)

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Banakar, V., Constantin de Magny, G., Jacobs, J. et al. Temporal and Spatial Variability in the Distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay: A Hindcast Study. EcoHealth 8, 456–467 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-011-0736-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-011-0736-4

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