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Predicting the Distribution of Vibrio spp. in the Chesapeake Bay: A Vibrio cholerae Case Study

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Abstract

Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, is a naturally occurring inhabitant of the Chesapeake Bay and serves as a predictor for other clinically important vibrios, including Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus. A system was constructed to predict the likelihood of the presence of V. cholerae in surface waters of the Chesapeake Bay, with the goal to provide forecasts of the occurrence of this and related pathogenic Vibrio spp. Prediction was achieved by driving an available multivariate empirical habitat model estimating the probability of V. cholerae within a range of temperatures and salinities in the Bay, with hydrodynamically generated predictions of ambient temperature and salinity. The experimental predictions provided both an improved understanding of the in situ variability of V. cholerae, including identification of potential hotspots of occurrence, and usefulness as an early warning system. With further development of the system, prediction of the probability of the occurrence of related pathogenic vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, notably V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus, will be possible, as well as its transport to any geographical location where sufficient relevant data are available.

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Acknowledgements

GCdeM and RRC were funded in part by National Institutes of Health Grant No. 1 R01 A139129 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Grant No. S0660009. WL and RH were funded by NOAA Grant No. NA05NOS4781222 and NA05NOS4781226 and CWB by the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research. Authors gratefully acknowledge Jiangtao Xu for her contribution to the hindcast capability.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Maryland Institute for Advanced Computer Studies, Biomolecular Sciences Bldg #296 room 3104H, College Park, MD, 20742, USA

    Guillaume Constantin de Magny & Rita R. Colwell

  2. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

    Wen Long, Christopher W. Brown & Raghu Murtugudde

  3. Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge, MD, USA

    Wen Long & Raleigh R. Hood

  4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD, USA

    Christopher W. Brown

  5. Maryland Pathogen Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

    Anwar Huq & Rita R. Colwell

  6. Department of Environmental Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA

    Rita R. Colwell

Authors
  1. Guillaume Constantin de Magny
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  2. Wen Long
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  3. Christopher W. Brown
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  4. Raleigh R. Hood
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  5. Anwar Huq
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  6. Raghu Murtugudde
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  7. Rita R. Colwell
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guillaume Constantin de Magny.

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Constantin de Magny, G., Long, W., Brown, C.W. et al. Predicting the Distribution of Vibrio spp. in the Chesapeake Bay: A Vibrio cholerae Case Study. EcoHealth 6, 378–389 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-009-0273-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-009-0273-6

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