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Regional landslide susceptibility following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake using back-calculated geomaterial strength parameters

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Abstract

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake first occurred on April 14, 2016 with magnitude 6.5 in Kumamoto, Japan as a foreshock. Subsequently, after 28 h, an even larger earthquake occurred with magnitude 7.3 as the main shock on April 16, 2016. These earthquakes were caused by two active faults: the Futagawa and Hinagu faults. This paper proposes a landslide susceptibility calculation method that considers the geomaterial strength reduction from peak to residual state and ground motion directivity. Although there is a lack of information regarding the strength parameters of geomaterials in the slopes, a parametric analysis with various strength parameters of friction angle and cohesion was carried out. To simulate the actual landslides triggered by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, the best combination of friction angle and cohesion in each lithology was optimized by a proposed weighted prediction rate. Based on the calculated permanent seismic displacement, a landslide susceptibility map was produced to show the degree of susceptibility over a wide area comprising 100 km2. The proposed regional landslide susceptibility map will be valuable for estimating the locations of possible slope failures and the extent of damage, as well as for planning field reconnaissance and preventing secondary disasters immediately after earthquakes.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the Forestry Agency and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for providing the data used in this study. We would also like to thank the Geospatial Information Authority (GIA); the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism; and the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) of Japan for giving us access to their data. Some of the figures were made using the Generic Mapping Tools software package. This work was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI) program (grant no. JP16K01343).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Defense Academy, 1-10-20, Hashirimizu, Yokosuka-shi, Kanagawa, 239-8686, Japan

    Masahiro Shinoda & Yoshihisa Miyata

  2. Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 4-11-16, Kurokami, Chuo-ku, Kumamoto-shi, Kumamoto, 860-0862, Japan

    Ushio Kurokawa

  3. Asia Air Survey Co., Ltd, 29F, OAP Tower, 1-8-30, Tenmabashi, Kita-ku, Osaka, 530-6029, Japan

    Kenichi Kondo

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  1. Masahiro Shinoda
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  2. Yoshihisa Miyata
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  3. Ushio Kurokawa
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  4. Kenichi Kondo
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Correspondence to Masahiro Shinoda.

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Shinoda, M., Miyata, Y., Kurokawa, U. et al. Regional landslide susceptibility following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake using back-calculated geomaterial strength parameters. Landslides 16, 1497–1516 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01171-1

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