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Debris-flow hazard assessment and validation following the Medano Fire, Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, Colorado

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Abstract

A debris-flow hazard assessment was conducted for the Medano Creek drainage basin, at Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, following the 2,400  ha Medano Fire in 2010. Debris-flow probability and volume predictions were made using empirical regression models. Model parameters include burn severity, rainfall intensity, topographic characteristics, and soil properties. Model results provided park resource managers with information on potential sub-basin-specific hazards to park visitors, roads, and campsites. Monitoring of the first significant rainfall events following the fire and the resulting debris-flow responses provided means for model validation. Of the three probability models utilized, two predicted high probability of debris-flow occurrence for all sub-basins that produced debris flows, with numerous false positives, while the third failed to predict high probability in any of the sub-basins. The volume model predicted volumes within approximately one order of magnitude higher than those measured.

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Acknowledgments

This material is based upon the work supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. EAR-1118056. The authors are grateful for the logistical assistance for the project given by the Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, and especially from employees Andrew Valdez and Fred Bunch. Field work and data interpretation benefitted from contributions by Bob Kirkham and Dan Pratt.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hatch Mott MacDonald, 198 Union Boulevard, Lakewood, CO, 80228, USA

    Evan Q. Friedman

  2. Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois Street, Golden, CO, 80401, USA

    Paul M. Santi

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  1. Evan Q. Friedman
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  2. Paul M. Santi
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Correspondence to Evan Q. Friedman.

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Friedman, E.Q., Santi, P.M. Debris-flow hazard assessment and validation following the Medano Fire, Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, Colorado. Landslides 11, 1093–1113 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0462-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0462-9

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