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Integration of a limit-equilibrium model into a landslide early warning system

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Abstract

Landslides are a significant hazard in many parts of the world and exhibit a high, and often underestimated, damage potential. Deploying landslide early warning systems is one risk management strategy that, amongst others, can be used to protect local communities. In geotechnical applications, slope stability models play an important role in predicting slope behaviour as a result of external influences; however, they are only rarely incorporated into landslide early warning systems. In this study, the physically based slope stability model CHASM (Combined Hydrology and Stability Model) was initially applied to a reactivated landslide in the Swabian Alb to assess stability conditions and was subsequently integrated into a prototype of a semi-automated landslide early warning system. The results of the CHASM application demonstrate that for several potential shear surfaces the Factor of Safety is relatively low, and subsequent rainfall events could cause instability. To integrate and automate CHASM within an early warning system, international geospatial standards were employed to ensure the interoperability of system components and the transferability of the implemented system as a whole. The CHASM algorithm is automatically run as a web processing service, utilising fixed, predetermined input data, and variable input data including hydrological monitoring data and quantitative rainfall forecasts. Once pre-defined modelling or monitoring thresholds are exceeded, a web notification service distributes SMS and email messages to relevant experts, who then determine whether to issue an early warning to local and regional stakeholders, as well as providing appropriate action advice. This study successfully demonstrated the potential of this new approach to landslide early warning. To move from demonstration to active issuance of early warnings demands the future acquisition of high-quality data on mechanical properties and distributed pore water pressure regimes.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the German Ministry of Education and Research for funding the ILEWS project (No. 03G0653A– 03G0653F). We are grateful to LUBW, LGRB and DWD for providing essential data and thank the administration of Lichtenstein-Unterhausen for their cooperation. Additional support was granted by the 51st Chinese PostDoc Science Foundation (No.2012M511298). We also like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, No. 1 Wenyuan Road, Nanjing, 210046, People’s Republic of China

    Benni Thiebes

  2. Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Universitaetsstr. 7, 1010, Vienna, Austria

    Rainer Bell & Thomas Glade

  3. Geomer GmbH, Im Breitspiel 11 b, 69126, Heidelberg, Germany

    Stefan Jäger

  4. Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115, Bonn, Germany

    Julia Mayer

  5. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Queen’s Building, University Walk, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK

    Malcolm Anderson & Liz Holcombe

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  1. Benni Thiebes
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Correspondence to Benni Thiebes.

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Thiebes, B., Bell, R., Glade, T. et al. Integration of a limit-equilibrium model into a landslide early warning system. Landslides 11, 859–875 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0416-2

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