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Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with Radial Basis Function Network

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Abstract

Early-warning systems for natural disasters are important tools for disaster risk reduction and for achieving sustainable development and livelihoods. In 2005, the Japanese government initiated a new nationwide early-warning system for landslides disasters. The main methodology of the system is to set a criterion for occurrences of debris flows and slope failures based on several rainfall indices (60-min cumulative rainfall and soil–water index) in each 5-km grid mesh covering all of Japan. Because many of the records of mass movements are lacking in scientific precision on timing and location, the system applies Radial Basis Function Network methods to set the criterion based primarily on rainfall data recorded as not triggering disasters. Since the end of March 2007, under torrential rainfall conditions, early-warning information has been disseminated as part of weather news using TV, radio, and the Internet. Because of the increasing worldwide recognition of the importance of early-warning systems for natural disaster reduction, the aim of this article is to introduce the new Japanese early-warning system to the international landslide community. In this article, the method, the system, and the result of its application to landslide disasters in 2009 are presented.

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Acknowledgement

We would like to thank gratefully Dr. Mauri McSaveney for giving us constructive advice to make this article readable and clear. Anonymous reviewers give us constructive comments to improve the contents of this article. Finally, we would like to thank Prof. Kyoji Sassa for encouraging us to write this article and giving us helpful advice.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Erosion and Sediment Control Division, National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management (NILIM), MLIT, 1, Asahi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, 305-0804, Japan

    Nobutomo Osanai

  2. Volcano and Debris Flow Research Team, Public Works Research Institute (PWRI), 1-6, Minamihara, Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan

    Takeshi Shimizu

  3. Chuden Engineering Consultants Co., Ltd, 2-3-30 Deshio, Minami-ku, Hiroshima, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan

    Kazumasa Kuramoto

  4. Fujikawa Sabo Office, MLIT, Fujimi, Japan

    Shinichi Kojima

  5. Snow Avalanche and Landslide Research Center, PWRI, 2-6-8 Nishiki Town, Myoukou, Niigata Prefecture, Japan

    Tomoyuki Noro

Authors
  1. Nobutomo Osanai
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  2. Takeshi Shimizu
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  3. Kazumasa Kuramoto
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  4. Shinichi Kojima
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  5. Tomoyuki Noro
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Takeshi Shimizu.

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Osanai, N., Shimizu, T., Kuramoto, K. et al. Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with Radial Basis Function Network. Landslides 7, 325–338 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0229-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0229-5

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