Abstract
Anairetes alpinus is currently categorized as an endangered species due to range fragmentation and habitat loss across its geographic distribution. Its range is only partially known, and potential effects of future climate change on its distribution have yet to be assessed. Using ecological niche models and future climates information, we assessed the geographic and environmental potential distribution of A. alpinus for the years 2050 and 2070, analyzing effects of habitat loss and the importance of existing protected areas (PAs) across the species’ range. Our ecological niche models predicted a distributional range of ~ 59,000 to ~ 64,400 km2 for the species, extending from northern Peru to northern Bolivia. However, habitat loss led to an important reduction (> 57%) in the current potential suitable areas. On average, the climate change reduced the potential distributional areas by ~ 49% and ~ 61% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss are predicted to pose an even greater risk, leading to a net reduction in future potential distributions of over 75%. We also observed a shift of ~ 230 m increase in elevation between the range under present conditions and scenarios for 2050 and 2070. Although PAs were more suitable climatically than surrounding areas, for future scenarios, we observed an important reduction (on average over 25%) of proportion of PAs within the estimated distributional areas, as well as a significant (P < 0.05) reduction in mean habitat suitability values within PAs. Our novel results offer a guide for future integrative studies focused on defining conservation units and ecological corridors across the distribution of many Andean species.
Zusammenfassung
Derzeitige und künftig mögliche Verbreitung des bedrohten Aschenbrust-Meisentyranns (Anairetes alpinus; Sperlingsvögel: Tyrannen) unter globalen Klimaänderungsszenarien
Wegen der Fragmentierung seines Verbreitungsgebiets und des Verlusts an Lebensraum über seine gesamte geographische Verbreitung hinweg wird Anairetes alpinus inzwischen als bedrohte Art eingestuft. Seine Verbreitung ist nur zum Teil bekannt, und mögliche Auswirkungen zukünftiger Klimaveränderungen auf die Verbreitung müssen noch untersucht werden. Mithilfe Ökologischer Nischen-Modelle und auf die Zukunft hochgerechneter Klima-Daten schlossen wir auf die mögliche zukünftige geographische Verbreitung der Art für die Jahre 2050 und 2070; dabei wurden die Effekte des Lebensraumverlusts sowie die Bedeutung der existierenden Schutzgebiete über die gesamte Verbreitung der Art hinweg analysiert. Unser Ökologisches Nischen-Modell sagte für die Art eine Verbreitung von ca. 59.000 bis 64.000 km2, von Nord-Peru bis Nord-Bolivien, vorher. Der Verlust von Lebensraum würde jedoch zu einer bedeutenden Verringerung (> 57%) der derzeit noch geeigneten Besiedlungsgebiete führen. Im Schnitt würde die Klimaänderung die potentiell möglichen Verbreitungsgebiete um ca. 49% (2050), bzw. ca. 61% (2070) verkleinern. Dabei kann man davon ausgehen, dass synergistische Effekte der Klimaveränderung und des Verlusts an Lebensraum ein noch größeres Risiko mit sich brächten, das den Nettorückgang zukünftig möglicher Verbreitungsgebiete auf über 75% steigen ließe. Auf der Basis der derzeitigen Bedingungen und Szenarien errechneten wir für 2050 und 2070 außerdem einen Anstieg von etwa 230 m über der jetzigen Verbreitungshöhe. Obwohl für die zukünftigen Szenarien die Schutzgebiete klimatisch besser geeignet sind als die Umgebung, stellten wir einen bedeutsamen Rückgang (im Schnitt über 25%) der Anteile der Schutzgebiete an den errechneten Verbreitungsgebieten fest sowie einen signifikanten (p > 0,05) Verlust an mittlerer Habitateignung innerhalb der Schutzgebiete. Unsere Ergebnisse können für die Verbreitung vieler Arten in den Anden als Leitfaden für zukünftige, integrative Untersuchungen zur Festlegung von Naturschutzeinheiten und von ökologischen Korridoren dienen.
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Acknowledgements
The first author (PJA) extends his gratitude to the Museo de Historia Natural de Cusco and Asociacion Ecosistemas Andinos Andinos (ECOAN). DAP-T extends his gratitude to Smithsonian-Mason School of Conservation for a scholarship during the course “Spatial Ecology, Geospatial Analysis and Remote Sensing for Conservation (MCCS 0500)” that provided tools and skills necessary for our spatial analysis. This manuscript was improved by comments (including the reviewed translation) from Denisse Spaan, Cristina Vallejos, A. Townsend Peterson, Lynna Kiere, and three anonymous reviewers.
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PJAR and DAP-T: conceived and designed the study; PJAR, CAC, and GF: compiled the database of available records and performed the fieldwork; PJAR and DAP-T: performed the ecological niche models and developed spatial analyses. All authors contributed to the analysis and interpretation of results and the writing of the manuscript.
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Communicated by J. T. Lifjeld.
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Atauchi, P.J., Aucca-Chutas, C., Ferro, G. et al. Present and future potential distribution of the endangered Anairetes alpinus (Passeriformes: Tyrannidae) under global climate change scenarios. J Ornithol 161, 723–738 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-020-01762-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-020-01762-z