Abstract
The complex hydrogeological conditions of China’s coal fields and the frequent water inrush accidents there seriously threaten the safe mining of coal. A new risk evaluation model for water inrushes from seam floors was constructed by combining the established evaluation index system with set pair analysis (SPA), thereby integrating quantitative and qualitative indexes. The resultant model reflects both the factors affecting water inrush from the seam floor and the uncertainty in the parameter values for those factors. To demonstrate the value of this model, the risk of water inrush from the seam floor was assessed for the working face of a mine in Tongzi county, Guizhou province, China. The prediction obtained from the model conformed to the actual conditions. Moreover, the methodology provides a basis for water inrush risk assessment from seam floors.
Zusammenfassung
Die komplexen hydrogeologischen Bedingungen von Kohlelagestätten und die häufigen Wassereinbrüche aus dem Liegenden stellen eine ernsthafte Gefährdung für den sicheren Abbau in Kohlebergwerken in China dar. Viele Faktoren beeinflussen Wassereinbrüche aus dem Liegenden. Die Parameterwerte für diese Faktoren sind aber mit einigen Unsicherheiten behaftet. Um dieses Problem zu bewältigen, wurde ein neues Modell zur Risikobewertung von Wassereinbrüchen aus dem Liegenden entwickelt. Es kombiniert das etablierte System von Bewertungsindizes mit der set-pair-Analyse (SPA) und integriert quantitative und qualitative Indizes. Das Model spiegelt sowohl die Faktoren wider, die Wassereinbrüche aus dem Liegenden beeinflussen als auch die Unsicherheit der Parameterwerte dieser Faktoren. Um den Nutzen des Models zu demonstrieren, wurde das Risiko des Wassereinbruchs aus dem Liegenden für den Arbeitsbereich eines Bergwerks im Verwaltungsbezirk Tongzi in der Provinz Guizhou in China bewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Modelprognose zu den tatsächlichen Bedingungen passt. Die Methodik stellt die Basis für eine Risikobewertung von Wassereinbrüchen aus dem Liegenden dar.
抽象
煤田复杂水文地质条件和频繁煤层底板突水事故严重威胁煤矿安全。煤层底板突水受多因素控制,各因素同时受多种不确定性影响。为解决煤层底板突水问题,评价因子系统引入集对分析(SPA),建立了一种新的底板突水危险性评价模型。模型既能体现底板突水因素作用又能反应各因素的不确定性影响。评价了贵州桐梓县煤矿某工作面底板突水风险,模型预测结果与实际情况一致。研究方法为煤层底板突水评价问题解决提供了研究基础。
Resumen
Las complejas condiciones hidrogeológicas de los campos de carbón y los frecuentes accidentes de irrupción de agua a través del piso de la veta, amenazan la seguridad del trabajo en las minas de carbón en China. Numerosos factores controlan la irrupción de agua desde los pisos de las vetas; no obstante, el rango de los valores para estos parámetros está sujeto a cierta incerteza. Para solucionar estos problemas, un nuevo modelo de evaluación de riesgo se construyó mediante la combinación de un sistema de índices de evaluación aceptado con un análisis de conjunto de pares (SPA) integrando índices cuali y cuantitativos. El modelo resultante refleja tanto los factores que afectan la irrupción de agua como la incerteza en los valores de esos factores. Para demostrar la validez del modelo, se relevó el riesgo de irrupción de agua desde el piso de veta en una cara de trabajo de una mina en Tongzi, provincia de Guizhou, China. Los resultados muestran que la predicción obtenida a través del modelo concuerda con las condiciones reales. Aún más, la metodología proporciona una base para el relevamiento de riesgo de irrupciones de agua a través de los pisos de las vetas.
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Acknowledgements
This research was financially supported by China’s National Natural Science Foundation (Grants 41430318, 41702270, and 41572222) and National Scientific and Technical Support Program (Grants 2016YFC0801800 and 2012BAB12B03), Guizhou Province’s Science and Technology Agency Foundation [qian ke he LH zi(2014)7617] and Geological Exploration Fund (Guizhou karst groundwater system functions sustainable utilization), the Guizhou University Introducing Talents Research Foundation (2014–61), the Joint Open Foundation of the Key Laboratory of the Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, and the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences (Grant KF201612).
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Bo, L., Qiang, W., xian-qian, D. et al. Risk Analysis Model of Water Inrush Through the Seam Floor Based on Set Pair Analysis. Mine Water Environ 37, 281–287 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10230-017-0498-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10230-017-0498-5