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Climatic drivers of potential hazards in Mediterranean coasts

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An Erratum to this article was published on 18 February 2011

Abstract

This paper studies climatic drivers (air and water temperature, precipitation rates, river discharge, sea level and storm patterns) in four Mediterranean regions: the Catalan-Valencia Coast (Spain), the Oran (Algeria) and Gabès (Tunisia) Gulfs and the western Nile Delta (Egypt). The paper also considers the potential hazards that these drivers can induce. It first analyses climatic trends in the drivers, taking into account the available time series of recorded and simulated meteo-oceanographic data from different sources. Next, it presents the general framework to assess biogeophysical hazards (flooding, erosion, droughts and water quality), followed by a simple and yet robust evaluation of those hazards for the four studied coastal sites. Assuming climate change projections under different scenarios and considering the observed trends in drivers, the resulting erosion rates due to sea-level rise and wave storm effects have been estimated. The Nile and Ebro Deltas, together with the Oran Gulf, are more vulnerable than the Gulfs of Valencia and Gabès. Regarding water quality in terms of (a) precipitation and dissolved oxygen in the water column and (b) sea surface temperature, the results show that the most vulnerable zones for the projected conditions (a) are the Gulfs of Oran, Valencia and Gabès, while the Nile Delta is the region where the decrease in water quality will be less pronounced. For the projected conditions (b), the most vulnerable zone is the Ebro Delta, while the impact in the other three cases will be smaller and of comparable magnitude. Finally, the overall future impact of these hazards (associated to climatic change) in the four sites is discussed in comparative terms, deriving some conclusions.

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Acknowledgments

This work has been funded by the EU project CIRCE (ref. TST5-CT-2007-036961) and the research project ARCO (ref. 200800050084350) from the Spanish Ministry of Environment. The authors also went to acknowledge the use of data from various public organizations in the four studied sites, as described in the text, with a special mention to Mr. Josep Pascual.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratori d’Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Jordi Girona 1–3, Edifici D1 Campus Nord, 08034, Barcelona, Spain

    Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla, Cesar Mösso, Joan Pau Sierra & Marc Mestres

  2. Centre Internacional d’Investigació dels Recursos Costaners, Jordi Girona 1–3, Edifici D1 Campus Nord, 08034, Barcelona, Spain

    Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla, Cesar Mösso, Joan Pau Sierra & Marc Mestres

  3. Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer, 28, rue du 2 mars 1934, 2025, Salammbo, Tunisia

    Ali Harzallah

  4. Membre du Groupe Intergouvernemental sur l’Evolution du Climat (IPCC), Association de Recherche Climat Environnement, ARCE, BP 4250, Ibn Rochd, 31037, Oran, Algeria

    Mohamed Senouci

  5. Alexandria University, Arab Academy of Science and Technology and Maritime Transport, El-Guish Road, El-Shatby, Alexandria, 21526, Egypt

    Mohamed El Raey

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  1. Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla
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  2. Cesar Mösso
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  3. Joan Pau Sierra
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Correspondence to Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla.

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An erratum to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-011-0206-0

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Sánchez-Arcilla, A., Mösso, C., Sierra, J.P. et al. Climatic drivers of potential hazards in Mediterranean coasts. Reg Environ Change 11, 617–636 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0193-6

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