Abstract
Debris flow is a natural hazard typically triggered by heavy rainfall. Previous research aimed at forecasting the occurrence of debris flows have led to the development of several rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for different areas using the second-percentile method that allows a missed-alarm probability of up to 2%, while disregarding the occurrence of false alarms. The current study aims to develop rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting taking into account both missed alarms and false alarms. Specifically, the new optimization approach seeks to determine the optimal duration-intensity threshold associated with the lowest missed- and false-alarm probabilities combined. In addition to the methodology, a case study is presented to show that the new optimization approach is feasible for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds in debris flow forecasting, and is more efficient than the method currently in use, which is associated with a higher probability of missed and false alarms combined.
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Notes
Equivalent to I = αDβ
Equivalent to I = 2.09D−0.12
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Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the editor and reviewers for their valuable comments which helped to greatly improve the quality of the manuscript. Financial support for the research project provided by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Republic of China (Taiwan) is also gratefully acknowledged (Grant No. MOST106-2218-E-008-013-MY2), as well as funding from the University Grants Committee of Hong Kong (Grant No. T22-603/15 N).
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Wu, MH., Wang, J.P. & Chen, IC. Optimization approach for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting. Bull Eng Geol Environ 78, 2495–2501 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-018-1314-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-018-1314-6