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Numerical modelling assessment of climate-change impacts and mitigation measures on the Querença-Silves coastal aquifer (Algarve, Portugal)

Evaluation des impacts du changement climatique et des mesures de mitigation sur l’aquifère côtier de Querença-Silves (Algarve, Portugal) à partir de modélisation numérique

Evaluación de modelos numéricos de los impactos del cambio climático y las medidas de mitigación en el acuífero costero de Querença-Silves (Algarve, Portugal)

数值模拟评价气候变化对(葡萄牙阿尔加伟)Querença-Silves沿海含水层的影响及减缓措施

Aplicação de modelos numéricos na análise do impacto de alterações climáticas e medidas de mitigação no aquífero costeiro Querença-Silves (Algarve, Portugal)

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Abstract

Predicted changes in climate will lead to seawater intrusion in the Querença-Silves (QS) coastal aquifer (south Portugal) during the coming century if the current water-resource-management strategy is maintained. As for much of the Mediterranean, average rainfall is predicted to decrease along with increasing seasonal and inter-annual variability and there is a need to understand how these changes will affect the sustainable use of groundwater resources. A density-coupled flow and transport model of the QS was used to simulate an ensemble of climate, water-use and adaptation scenarios from 2010 to 2099 taking into account intra- and inter-annual variability in recharge and groundwater use. By considering several climate models, bias correction and recharge calculation methods, a degree of uncertainty was included. Changes in rainfall regimes will have an immediate effect on groundwater discharge; however, the effect on saltwater intrusion is attenuated by the freshwater–saltwater interfaces’ comparatively slow rate of movement. Comparing the effects of adaptation measures demonstrates that the extent of intrusion in the QS is controlled by the long-term water budget, as the effectiveness of both demand and supply oriented measures is proportional to the change in water budget, and that to maintain the current position, average groundwater discharge should be in the order of 50 × 106 m3 yr−1.

Résumé

Les changements climatiques prévus vont engendrer des intrusions salines dans l’aquifère côtier de Querença-Silves (QS) (Sud du Portugal) au cours du siècle à venir si la stratégie actuelle de gestion de la ressource en eau est. maintenue. Comme pour la majorité de la Méditerranée, il est. prévu que les précipitations moyennes diminuent et que la variabilité saisonnière et interannuelle augmente; il est. nécessaire de comprendre comment ces changements vont affecter l’utilization durable des ressources en eaux souterraines. Un modèle couplé d’écoulement densitaire et du transport du QS a été utilisé pour simuler un ensemble de scénarios climatiques, d’utilization d’eau et d’adaptation de 2010 à 2099 prenant en considération la variabilité intra- et interannuelle de la recharge et l’utilization des eaux souterraines. En considérant plusieurs modèles climatiques, la correction des biais et des méthodes de calcul de la recharge, un degré d’incertitude a été intégré. Les modifications des régimes des précipitations auront un effet immédiat sur les décharges des eaux souterraines, cependant l’effet sur les intrusions salines est. atténué par le faible déplacement des interfaces eaux douces–eaux salées en comparaison. La comparaison des effets des mesures d’adaptation démontre que l’extension de l’intrusion dans le QS est. contrôlée par le bilan hydrologique à long terme, du fait que l’efficacité à la fois des mesures orientées demandes et approvisionnement est. proportionnelle au changement du budget hydrologique, et que pour maintenir la position actuelle, la décharge moyenne des eaux souterraines devrait être de l’ordre de 50 × 106 m3 an−1.

Resumen

Los cambios previstos en el clima durante el próximo siglo conducirán a la intrusión de agua de mar en el acuífero costero de Querença-Silves (QS) (sur de Portugal) si se mantiene la actual estrategia de gestión de los recursos hídricos. Al igual que en gran parte del Mediterráneo, se pronostica que disminuirá la precipitación media junto con el aumento de la variabilidad estacional e interanual y es necesario comprender cómo afectarán estos cambios en el uso sostenible de los recursos hídricos subterráneos. Se utilizó un modelo acoplado de densidad de flujo y transporte del QS para simular un conjunto de escenarios climáticos, de uso y adaptación de 2010 a 2099, teniendo en cuenta la variabilidad intra e interanual de la recarga y el uso del agua subterránea. Al considerar varios modelos de clima, corrección de sesgo y métodos de cálculo de recarga, se incluyó un grado de incertidumbre. Los cambios en los regímenes de lluvia tendrán un efecto inmediato en la descarga de agua subterránea, sin embargo el efecto sobre la intrusión de agua salada es atenuado por la velocidad comparativamente lenta de las interfaces de agua dulce–agua salada. La comparación de los efectos de las medidas de adaptación demuestra que el grado de intrusión en el QS está controlado por el balance hídrico a largo plazo, ya que la eficacia de las medidas orientadas tanto a la demanda como a la oferta es proporcional al cambio en el balance hídrico y a la actual posición, la descarga media de agua subterránea debería ser del orden de 50 × 106m3año−1.

摘要

如果维持目前的水资源管理策略,在未来的下一世纪,预测的气候变化将导致(葡萄牙南部)Querença-Silves沿海含水层海水入侵。在地中海大部,预计平均降水量降低,但季节性和年际变异性增加,需要了解这些变化是怎样影响地下水资源的可持续利用。利用Querença-Silves沿海含水层密度-耦合水流和传输模型模拟了2010–2099年气候、水利用和适用方案的整体情况,考虑了补给和地下水利用年内和年际的变异性。通过考虑几个气候模型、偏见校正和补给计算方法,包括了不确定性程度。降雨变化对地下水排泄有直接影响,然而,由于淡水–咸水界面水流运移速度比较低,对海水入侵的影响减弱。通过比较适应措施的影响说明,Querença-Silves沿海含水层的入侵范围受长期水量平衡的控制,因为,供需倾向的措施有效性与水量平衡成正比,还说明为了维持目前的状况,平均地下水排泄量应该大约为50 × 106 m3 yr−1。

Resumo

Alterações previstas no clima irão causar intrusão salina no aquífero costeiro Querença-Silves (QS), no sul de Portugal, durante o próximo século se a estratégia de gestão de recursos hídricos atual for mantida. Tal como para a maior parte do Mediterrâneo, está previsto uma redução da precipitação média juntamente com um aumento da variabilidade sazonal e interanual e é necessário compreender o impacto destas alterações no uso sustentável de recursos hídricos subterrâneos. Um modelo de escoamento e transporte de densidade variável do QS foi aplicado na simulação de um conjunto de cenários climáticos, uso da água e adaptação para o período entre 2010 e 2099, tomando em conta a variabilidade inter e intra-anual da recarga e uso da água. Aplicando vários modelos climáticos, métodos de correção e de cálculo da recarga permitiu-se incluir uma gama de incertezas nos resultados. Alterações nos regimes de precipitação irão ter um impacto imediato na descarga de água, no entanto o efeito na intrusão salina é atenuado pelo movimento relativamente lento da interface água doce–água salgada. Comparando os efeitos das medidas de adaptação demonstra-se que a extensão da intrusão no QS é controlada pelo balanço hídrico a longo prazo, dado que a eficácia de medidas aplicadas, quer sobre a demanda quer sobre a oferta, é proporcional à alteração no balanço hídrico, e que para manter a posição atual, a descarga de águas subterrâneas deverá ser mantida em média na ordem de 50 × 106 m3 ano−1.

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Acknowledgements

The first author wishes to acknowledge the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) for the PhD grant SFRH/BD/80149/2011, as well as DHI for supplying a student licence of the FEFLOW software. The research leading to these results has also received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 619120 (Demonstrating Managed Aquifer Recharge as a Solution to Water Scarcity and Drought – MARSOL).

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  1. Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal

    Rui Hugman, Luis Costa & José Paulo Monteiro

  2. UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands

    Tibor Stigter

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  1. Rui Hugman
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Correspondence to Rui Hugman.

Appendix: abbreviations

Appendix: abbreviations

AdA:

Águas do Algarve [regional water utility]

BC:

Boundary condition

EPM:

Equivalent porous medium

FAO:

Food and Agriculture Organization

GCM:

Global circulation model

GDE:

Groundwater dependent ecosystem

ICTP-lin.reg:

ICTP-REGCM3 climate scenario, bias corrected with monthly linear regression

MAR:

Managed aquifer recharge

PG:

Penman-Grindley

QS:

Querença-Silves

RCM:

Regional climate model

SGD:

Submarine groundwater discharge

SWI:

Seawater intrusion

TM:

Thornthwaite-Mather

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Hugman, R., Stigter, T., Costa, L. et al. Numerical modelling assessment of climate-change impacts and mitigation measures on the Querença-Silves coastal aquifer (Algarve, Portugal). Hydrogeol J 25, 2105–2121 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-017-1594-0

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