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Potential for Sudden Shifts in Transient Systems: Distinguishing Between Local and Landscape-Scale Processes

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Abstract

Thorough understanding of the potential for threshold dynamics and catastrophic shifts to occur in natural systems is of great importance for ecosystem conservation and restoration. However, verifying the presence of alternative stable states, one of the theoretical explanations for sudden shifts in natural systems, has proven to be a major challenge. We examine processes on local and landscape scales in salt-marsh pioneer zones, to assess the presence of alternative stable states in this system. To that end, we investigated the presence of typical characteristics of alternative stable states: bimodality and threshold dynamics. We also studied whether vegetation patches remained stable over long time periods. Analysis of false-color aerial photographs revealed clear bimodality in plant biomass distribution. By transplanting Spartina anglica plants of three different biomass classes on three geographically different marshes, we showed that a biomass threshold limits the establishment of Spartina patches, potentially explaining their patchy distribution. The presence of bimodality and biomass thresholds points to the presence of alternative stable states and the potential for sudden shifts, at small, within-patch scales and on short time scales. However, overlay analysis of aerial photographs from a salt marsh in The Netherlands, covering a time span of 22 years, revealed that there was little long-term stability of patches, as vegetation cover in this area is slowly increasing. Our results suggest that the concept of alternative stable states is applicable to the salt-marsh pioneer vegetation on small spatio-temporal scales. However, the concept does not apply to long-term dynamics of decades or centuries of heterogeneous salt-marsh pioneer zones, as landscape-scale processes may determine the large-scale dynamics of salt marshes. Hence, our results provide the interesting perspective that threshold dynamics may occur in systems with, on the long term, only a single stable state.

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Acknowledgments

The authors like to thank the following persons and institutions for their valuable contribution to this project: Bas Koutstaal and Jos van Soelen, Remment ter Hofstede, Stichting het Zeeuws Landschap, Marco van Dijke, Natuurmonumenten, especially Otto Overdijk, RIZA, Bas Kers, and the Schure-Beijerinck-Popping fund for funding of measuring equipment (SBP/JK/2003-13). We also like to thank Brian Silliman, Max Rietkerk and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on an earlier draft of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Deltares, Marine and Coastal Systems, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH, Delft, The Netherlands

    Bregje K. van Wesenbeeck

  2. Centre for Estuarine and Marine Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), P.O. Box 140, 4400 AC, Yerseke, The Netherlands

    Johan van de Koppel, Peter M. J. Herman, Daphne van der Wal & Tjeerd J. Bouma

  3. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, 02912, USA

    Mark D. Bertness

  4. Community and Conservation Ecology, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 14, 9750 AA, Haren, The Netherlands

    Jan P. Bakker

Authors
  1. Bregje K. van Wesenbeeck
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  2. Johan van de Koppel
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  3. Peter M. J. Herman
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  4. Mark D. Bertness
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  5. Daphne van der Wal
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  6. Jan P. Bakker
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  7. Tjeerd J. Bouma
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Correspondence to Bregje K. van Wesenbeeck.

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Author Contributions: Bregje van Wesenbeeck executed the major part of this research and wrote this paper. Johan van de Koppel was involved in every part of this study and restructured major parts of this paper. Peter Herman helped with statistical analyses. Mark Bertness adjusted the design of this study and provided new views. Daphne van der Wal performed GIS analyses. Jan Bakker supervised and facilitated field work. Tjeerd Bouma supervised design of study and paper and substantially contributed to the writing of this paper. All authors commented on several drafts of this paper.

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van Wesenbeeck, B.K., van de Koppel, J., Herman, P.M.J. et al. Potential for Sudden Shifts in Transient Systems: Distinguishing Between Local and Landscape-Scale Processes. Ecosystems 11, 1133–1141 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-008-9184-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-008-9184-6

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