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Consequences of climate change on flax fiber in Normandy by 2100: prospective bioclimatic simulation based on data from the ALADIN-Climate and WRF regional models

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Abstract

Normandy is the world’s leading producer of flax fiber (Linum usitatissimu L.), which is mainly exported to China for textile manufacturing. Flax is a plant that is cultivated in spring and that grows in an oceanic climate with regular watering and limited thermal excesses. This article aims at projecting the impact of climate change on the phenology of this plant when subjected to climatic hazards that may occur during its development. These projections use two regional climate models (ALADIN-Climate and WRF) based on the two scenarios generated by the latest IPPC report—intergovernmental panel on climate change—(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The rise in temperatures would result in a time-cycle reduction. Consequently, flax would not be exposed to the early summer water shortage. However, thermal conditions could be unfavorable, especially due to the increased frequency of heat days. Flax is also exposed to the risk of lodging during heavy rainfall episodes; however, the results are somehow contrasted between the two climate models used. This research demonstrates the interest of multidisciplinary impact studies so as to anticipate the consequences of climate change on agricultural crops.

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Data availability

No new data were created or analyzed in this study. The model simulation outputs that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. The original data are available free of charge on the website http://www.drias-climat.fr/.

Code availability

This study does not use a specific calculation code.

Notes

  1. The number of areas devoted to flax cultivation has increased by 96% between 2000 and 2018, from 33,030 ha to 64,810 ha according to the Agreste processed data for Normandy.

  2. Flax is planted every 6 to 7 years to avoid soil depletion and prevent diseases. This rotation crop is considered the most significant one and leads to higher yields of the following crops by 20 to 30% (according to the European Flax and Hemp Confederation (CELC, 2012).

  3. Commission of the European Communities.

  4. The Plaine de Caen, with 34,000 tons produced each year, is one of the agricultural plains of Normandy that is specialized in the cultivation of spring flax fiber and has three scutching plants (Preux et al. 2020).

  5. In France, the advised periods for sowing ranges from March 15th to April 15th for a soil temperature of between 7 and 9 °C (Sultana 1983).

  6. Although the calculations are made on a daily time step basis, the interpretation of the water balance is made on the scale of the phenological periods.

  7. Potential evapotranspiration calculated on the basis of Thornthwaite’s formula, based on temperature and latitude, is considered representative in the wet temperate zone and therefore for northwestern France (Lecarpentier 1975; personal communication by V. Dubreuil). Indeed, the global solar radiation, which is useful for the calculation of the TURC potential evapotranspiration, a more precise method, is not available at the end of the IPSL-2014 simulation.

  8. The calculation of the useful water reserve corresponds to the following formula (Baize 2000) for each soil horizon:

    UWR (mm) = (pF 2.0 − pF 4.2) × Da × thickness.

    With UWR = useful water reserve (in mm); pF 2.0 = field capacity and pF 4.2 = wilting point; DA = soil bulk density and E = horizon thickness (in cm). Soil matrix potentials are determined by means of a membrane presser by the INRA unit in Orleans.

  9. At the same time, we assessed soil texture using Robinson’s pipette method by plotting the results on the Jamagne (1977) diagram. When applying the pedotransfer rules (Bouma 1989), the useful water reserve is 185 mm.

  10. Water comfort corresponds to the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to maximum plant evapotranspiration.

  11. The retting takes place after the flax is pulled out. The stems are spread out on the ground for 5 to 8 weeks. The alternation of rain and sunshine, i.e., wet then dry and hot periods, allows the development of micro-organisms (fungi and molds) that “more or less completely destroy the intermediate lamella that connects the fibrous bundles together, thus allowing the bundles to separate and divide into technical fibers” (Charlet 2008). This step is necessary to then extract the fiber.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Eric Lemarinier, farmer in Anguerny (Calvados), and his daughter Mélanie for providing an agricultural plot of land that allowed the digging of a soil pit. Thanks to IPSL, CERFACS, and CNRM laboratories for public climate data. We also thank Céline Quint from the “Carré International” (University of Caen) for the English translation. In addition, the authors thank the Normandy region for the funding of a doctoral thesis that contributed to this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Normandie Univ, UNICAEN, CNRS, LETG, 14000, Caen, France

    François Beauvais, Olivier Cantat, Patrick Le Gouée, Marie-Paule Bataille, Augustin Sallent, Thibaut Preux & Mohand Medjkane

  2. Normandie Univ, UNICAEN, CNRS, 14000, Caen, ESO, France

    François Beauvais & Philippe Madeline

  3. Normandie Univ, UNICAEN, INRAE, 14000, Caen, EVA, France

    Sophie Brunel-Muguet

  4. URSOLS, INRAE, 45075, Orléans, France

    Hervé Gaillard

  5. Université de Poitiers, RURALITES, 86073, Poitiers, France

    Thibaut Preux

  6. Normandie Univ, UNICAEN, CNRS, IDEES, 14000, Caen, France

    Mohand Medjkane

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Contributions

FB performed the study and led the writing. OC and PM led the research. PLG supervised and participated in the sampling protocol for the field soil data. SB-M controlled the phenology simulation. HG and M-PB conducted the laboratory analyses. AS took part in the soil sampling and negotiated with the farmer for the instrumentation. TP took part in the rural geography reflections and the SAFRAN observation data were transmitted by MM. All authors participated in the writing and proofreading and agree with the content of the article.

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Correspondence to François Beauvais.

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Beauvais, F., Cantat, O., Le Gouée, P. et al. Consequences of climate change on flax fiber in Normandy by 2100: prospective bioclimatic simulation based on data from the ALADIN-Climate and WRF regional models. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 415–426 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03938-4

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