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Projected changes in extreme precipitation intensity and dry spell length in Côte d’Ivoire under future climates

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Abstract

This study analyzes projected changes in seasonal extreme precipitation intensity and dry spell length in the investigation area (Côte d’Ivoire) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. To this end, a multi-model ensemble of fourteen CORDEX-Africa regional climate model simulations is used during the three stages of the West African Monsoon (WAM) season (April–June (AMJ), July–September (JAS), and October–December (OND)). The results indicate that Côte d’Ivoire is subject to a robust increase of cumulative intensity of precipitation associated with an amplification of extreme precipitation events during the WAM. In particular during JAS, a substantial increase in extreme precipitation reaching up to 50–60% compared to the reference mean value prevails in the western and coastal areas in the far future and under the RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, AMJ season is dominated by an increase in dry spell length of about 12% and 17% in the near future and 20% and 30% in the far future in the entire country under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, albeit considerable uncertainties. OND considered as the post-monsoon season is mostly characterized by a robust decrease in dry spell length more marked in the southwest in the RCP8.5 scenario during the far future. These results suggest that agricultural production and particularly cocoa plantations in the southwestern regions could be at the risk of flooding events and that water stress remains a threat for cocoa, coffee, and other cash crop plantations in the eastern regions.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the “Programme d’Appui Stratégique à la Recherche Scientifique en Côte d’Ivoire” (PASRES), the Geophysical Station of LAMTO, the Centre for Science & Technology of the Non-Aligned and Other Developing Countries (NAM S&T Centre) through the Research Training Fellowship for Developing Country Scientists (RTF-DCS), the “Centre d’Excellence African en Changement Climatique, la Biodiversité et l’Agriculture Durable” (CEA-CCBAD), and the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land use (WASCAL) Competence Centre (Ouagadougou) for their technical and financial supports. They thank also Dr. Chabi Adéyèmi for his help. Finally, the authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their contribution to improving the quality of the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et de Mécanique des Fluides, Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, 22, BP 582, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire

    Assi Louis Martial Yapo, Adama Diawara, Benjamin K. Kouassi, Fidèle Yoroba, Kouakou Kouadio, Dro T. Tiémoko, Dianikoura Ibrahim Koné, Elisée Y. Akobé & Kouassi P. A. T. Yao

  2. Station Géophysique de Lamto, BP 31, N’Douci, Côte d’Ivoire

    Adama Diawara, Benjamin K. Kouassi, Fidèle Yoroba & Kouakou Kouadio

  3. WASCAL Competence Center, West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land use (WASCAL), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

    Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla

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  1. Assi Louis Martial Yapo
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  2. Adama Diawara
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  6. Kouakou Kouadio
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  9. Elisée Y. Akobé
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Correspondence to Assi Louis Martial Yapo.

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Yapo, A.L.M., Diawara, A., Kouassi, B.K. et al. Projected changes in extreme precipitation intensity and dry spell length in Côte d’Ivoire under future climates. Theor Appl Climatol 140, 871–889 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03124-4

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