Abstract
The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944–2013) and temperature (1969–2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen’s slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up infrastructure against flood disasters in Upper Tapi Basin, India.
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Acknowledgements
The first author gratefully acknowledges the financial support received from Department of Science and Technology (DST), Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India vide their letter no. DST/INSPIRE Fellowship/2015/IF150634 dated January 11, 2016. The authors appreciate the infrastructural and financial support provided by Centre of Excellence (CoE) on “Water Resources and Flood Management”, TEQIP-II, Ministry of Human Resources Development (MHRD), Government of India, for conducting the study reported in the paper. The authors are also thankful to India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Central Water Commission (CWC) for providing necessary data to conduct the present study. The authors are grateful to the Editor-in-Chief and anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions to improve the quality of present work.
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Sharma, P.J., Loliyana, V.D., S. R., R. et al. Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India. Theor Appl Climatol 134, 1329–1354 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2343-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2343-y