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Historical statistics and future changes in long-duration blocking highs in key regions of Eurasia

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Abstract

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (NNR) data and 13 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study focuses on historical statistics and future change in blocking over key regions (Urals, Baikal, and Okhotsk regions) in Eurasia. The statistical characteristic using NNR data shows that short-duration and long-duration blocking highs are 75 and 25% of the total, respectively. It is also shown that frequency of blocking highs presents a decreased trend in Eurasia during 1956–2006, except blocking highs in summer in Baikal region, long-duration blocking highs in summer, and short-duration blocking highs in winter in Okhotsk region. Compared with NNR, the frequency of blocking highs is underestimated in Eurasia by CMIP5 models, except these with long-duration in the Baikal and Okhotsk regions. Most of the CMIP5 models can reproduce the historical trend of blocking highs over Eurasia during 1956–2005. In addition, projections show that the future change of long-duration blocking highs in Eurasia is not always consistent with that in the whole Northern Hemisphere. The results of the multiple models ensemble (MME) suggest that long-duration blocking highs in the Urals will significantly increase by 0.3 times/10 years (decrease by 0.22 times/10 years) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) in the wintertime. In the summertime, the frequency fluctuates with little change. In Okhotsk, long-duration blocking highs will increase by 0.23 times/10 years (decrease by 0.22 times/10 years) in the wintertime (summertime) under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5, long-duration blocking high frequency will remain the same, and the decreasing trend in the wintertime and the increasing trend (0.32 times/10 years) in the summertime will even accelerate over the trends in the twentieth century.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling and thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available model output. This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41225018, 41305105, 91644226, and 41575138), National Key R&D Program (2016YFA0602004), and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (lzujbky-2016-16). The authors are grateful to China Scholarship Council (CSC) for providing financial support and the University of Utah for providing working conditions for Dr. Yan Li during her visiting in the University of Utah.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, China

    Yan Li

  2. Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, China

    Peilong Ye

  3. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, 84112, USA

    Zhaoxia Pu

  4. College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Juan Feng

  5. Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing, 100875, China

    Juan Feng

  6. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, China

    Baisheng Ma & Jinyan Wang

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  1. Yan Li
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  2. Peilong Ye
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Correspondence to Yan Li.

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Li, Y., Ye, P., Pu, Z. et al. Historical statistics and future changes in long-duration blocking highs in key regions of Eurasia. Theor Appl Climatol 130, 1195–1207 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2079-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2079-8

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