Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A downscaling technique to simulate changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity between two types of El Niño events

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin between the Modoki and canonical El Niño years have been simulated and examined in this study based on a downscaling technique. The downscaling technique is used for generating synthetic TCs based on TC formation, TC track, and TC intensity models. Results suggest that the downscaling technique can well simulate the spatial distribution of TC activity during the two types of El Niño years and their differences. It is found that the observed changes in TC tracks during the two types of El Niño years are mainly due to the combined effects of changes in TC formation locations and large-scale steering flows. Further examinations have shown that changes in large-scale steering flows play a more important role than changes in TC formation locations. These results are in accordance with the cyclonic circulation anomaly found during the Modoki El Niño years compared to that during the canonical El Niño years. Numerical simulations further suggest that changes in TC tracks between the two types of El Niño years appear to be the most important factor affecting the TC intensity change. Compared to that during the Modoki El Niño years, TC formation is enhanced in the south quadrant of the WNP basin and more TCs take a northwestward track during the canonical El Niño years, leading to a longer TC lifespan and greater TC intensity.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ashok K, Yamagata T (2009) Climate change: the El Niño with a difference. Nature 461:481–484

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao SA, Weng H, Yamagata T (2007) El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J Geophys Res 112, C11007. doi:10.1029/2006JC003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cai W, Cowan T (2009) La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability. Geophys Res Lett 36, L12805. doi:10.1029/2009GL037885

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camargo SJ, Sobel AH (2005) Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J Clim 18:2996–3006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan JCL (2000) Tropical cyclones activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J Clim 13:2960–2972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen G, Tam CY (2010) Different impacts of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 37, L01803. doi:10.1029/2009GL041708

    Google Scholar 

  • Chia HH, Ropelewski CF (2002) The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific. J Clim 15:2934–2944

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chu PS (2004) ENSO and tropical cyclone activity. In: Murnane RJ, Liu KB (eds) Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future. University Press, Columbia, pp 297–332

    Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436:686–688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (2006) Climate and tropical cyclone activity: a new model downscaling approach. J Clim 19:4797–4802

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA, Ravela S, Vivant E, Risi C (2006) A statistical-deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87:299–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA, Sundararajan R, Williams J (2008) Hurricanes and global warming: results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89:347–367

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fudeyasu H, Iizuka S, Matsuura T (2006) Impact of ENSO on landfall characteristics of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific during the summer monsoon season. Geophys Res Lett 33, L21815. doi:10.1029/2006GL0277449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldenberg SB, Landsea CW, Mestas-Nunez AM, Gray WM (2001) The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: causes and implications. Science 293:474–478

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall TM, Jewson S (2007) Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tellus 59A:486–498. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00240.x

  • Holland GJ (1983) Tropical cyclone motion: environmental interaction plus a beta effect. J Atmos Sci 40:328–342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hong C-CY-H, Li TL, Lee M-Y (2011) Impacts of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Niños on tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 38, L16712. doi:10.1029/2011GL048821

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim HM, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2009) Impact of shifting patterns of Pacific Ocean warming on North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Science 325:77–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim JH, Ho CH, Chu PS (2010) Dipolar redistribution of summertime tropical cyclone genesis between the Philippine Sea and the northern South China Sea and its possible mechanisms. J Geophys Res 115, D06104. doi:10.1029/2009JD012196

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim HM, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2011) Modulation of North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by the three phases of ENSO. J Clim 24:1839–1849

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kug JS, Jin FF, An SI (2009) Two types of El Niño events: cold-tongue El Niño and warm-pool El Niño. J Clim 22:1499–1515

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Larkin NK, Harrison DE (2005) On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies. Geophys Res Lett 32:L13705

  • Latif M, Keenlyside NS, Bader J (2007) Tropical sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and hurricane development. Geophys Res Lett 34, L01710

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1982) Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation–El Niño. Mon Weather Rev 110:354–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith TM, Reynolds RW (2004) Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854–1997). J Clim 16:149–1510

    Google Scholar 

  • Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophys Res Lett 34, L08702. doi:10.1029/2006GL028905

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Chan JC (2002) How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim 13:1517–1536

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Wu L (2012) Tropical cyclone intensity change in the western North Pacific: downscaling from IPCC AR4 experiments. J Meteor Soc Jpn 90(2):223–233

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Li C, Mu M, Duan W (2013) Seasonal modulations of different impacts of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 40:2887–2902

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Holland GJ, Curry JA, Chang HR (2005) Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309:1844–1846

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weng H, Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao AS, Yamagata T (2007) Impacts of recent El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer. Clim Dyn 29:113–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weng H, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2009) Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Niño Modoki and El Niño events. Clim Dyn 32:663–674

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu L, Wang B (2004) Assessing impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone tracks. J Clim 17:1686–1698

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu L, Wang B (2008) What has changed the proposition of intense hurricanes in the last 30 years? J Clim 21:1432–1439

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu MC, Chang WL, Leung WM (2004) Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation events on TC landfalling activity in the western North Pacific. J Clim 17:1419–1428

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu L, Wang B, Geng S (2005) Growing influence of typhoon on East Asia. Geophys Res Lett 32, L18703. doi:10.1029/2005GL022937

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu L, Wang B, Braun SA (2008) Implications of tropical cyclone power dissipation index. Int J Climatol 28:727–731

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu L, Zhao H (2012) Dynamically derived tropical cyclone intensity changes over the western north pacific. J Climate:25:89–98

  • Zhang W, Graf H-F, Leung Y, Herzog M (2012) Different El Niño types and tropical cyclone landfall in East Asia. J Clim 25:6510–6523

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Wu L (2014) Inter-decadal shift of the prevailing tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific and its mechanism study. Meteorol Atmos Phys 125:89–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Wu L, Zhou W (2009) Observational relationship of climatologic beta drift with large-scale environmental flows. Geophys Res Lett 36, L18809. doi:10.1029/2009GL040126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Wu L, Zhou W (2010) Assessing the influence of the ENSO on tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific. Adv Atmos Sci 27:1361–1371. doi:10.1007/s00376-010-9161-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Wu L, Zhou W (2011) Interannual changes of tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific. J Meteor Soc Jpn 89(3):243–253. doi:10.2151/jmsj.2011–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Chu PS, Hsu PC, Murakami H (2014a) Exploratory analysis of extremely low tropical cyclone activity during the late-season of 2010 and 1998 over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. J Adv Model Earth Syst. doi:10.1002/2014MS000381

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Wu L, Wang R (2014b) Decadal variations of intense tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific during 1948–2010. Adv Atmos Sci 31(1):57–65. doi:10.1007/s00376-013-3011-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The author thanks Prof. Liguang Wu from the University of Information Science and Technology in China who gave valuable comments and helpful modification for this study. Thanks are extended to Prof. Pao-Shin Chu from the University of Hawaii in the USA and Dr. G. B. Raga from Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México for their help in improving the English of this work. This research is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305050, 41275093, 41475091, and 41375098), the National Basic Research Program of China (2013CB430103, 2015CB452803), the project of the specially appointed professorship of Jiangsu Province and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). This study is the Earth System Modeling Center Contribution Number 029.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

    Haikun Zhao

Authors
  1. Haikun Zhao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Haikun Zhao.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhao, H. A downscaling technique to simulate changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity between two types of El Niño events. Theor Appl Climatol 123, 487–501 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1374-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1374-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation