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Assessment of agricultural drought using a simple water balance model in the Free State Province of South Africa

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Abstract

Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) at three different probability levels (20%, 50%, and 80%) was used to quantify drought affecting rain-fed maize production in the Free State Province of South Africa based on climate data from 227 weather stations. Results showed high spatial variability in the suitability of different areas: the southern and southwestern localities are unsuitable due to high drought incidences; the northern, central, and western regions are marginally suitable; the eastern, northerneastern areas and a few patches in the northwest are highly suitable with relatively low drought severity. Proper choice of maize varieties to suit conditions at different localities is crucial. The Mann–Kendall test and coefficient of variation were further used to determine trends and temporal variability, respectively, in the WRSI, seasonal rainfall, and seasonal maize water requirements. Results of this analysis revealed no significant positive trends in the WRSI, no significant negative trends in seasonal rainfall, and no significant positive trends in maize water requirements, contradicting previous findings of increased drought severity. Seasonal rainfall and the WRSI showed high interseasonal variability, while seasonal maize water requirements showed low variability. In view of these observations, it is apparent that realignment of management practices is an overdue prerequisite for sustainable maize production.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the Agricultural Research Council Institute for Soil, Climate, and Water (project number GW57/007). The authors are grateful to Dr. Thomas Fyfield for proofreading the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Agricultural Research Council-Institute for Soil, Climate and Water, Private Bag X79, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa

    Mokhele Edmond Moeletsi

  2. Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, PO Box 339, Bloemfontein, 9300, South Africa

    Mokhele Edmond Moeletsi & Sue Walker

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  1. Mokhele Edmond Moeletsi
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Correspondence to Mokhele Edmond Moeletsi.

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Moeletsi, M.E., Walker, S. Assessment of agricultural drought using a simple water balance model in the Free State Province of South Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 108, 425–450 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0540-7

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