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Performance of GCMs for seasonal prediction over India—a case study for 2009 monsoon

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Abstract

The 2009 drought in India was one of the major droughts that the country faced in the last 100 years. This study describes the anomalous features of 2009 summer monsoon and examines real-time seasonal predictions made using six general circulation models (GCMs). El Niño conditions evolved in the Pacific Ocean, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian Ocean were warmer than normal during monsoon 2009. The observed circulation patterns indicate a weaker monsoon in that year over India with weaker than normal convection over the Bay of Bengal and Indian landmass. Skill of the GCMs during hindcast period shows that neither these models simulate the observed interannual variability nor their multi-model ensemble (MME) significantly improves the skill of monsoon rainfall predictions. Except for one model used in this study, the real-time predictions with longer lead (2- and 1-month lead) made for the 2009 monsoon season did not provide any indication of a highly anomalous monsoon. However, with less lead time (zero lead), most of the models as well as the MME had provided predictions of below normal rainfall for that monsoon season. This study indicates that the models could not predict the 2009 drought over India due to the use of less warm SST anomalies over the Pacific in the longer lead runs. Hence, it is proposed that the uncertainties in SST predictions (the lower boundary condition) have to be represented in the model predictions of summer monsoon rainfall over India.

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Acknowledgments

This research has been conducted as part of the project entitled “Development and Application of Extended Range Forecast System for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture” at IIT, Delhi sponsored by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Government of India. India Meteorological Department (IMD) is acknowledged for providing observed gridded rainfall datasets. The model datasets used in this study have been provided by the International Research Institute of Climate and Society (IRI), USA. The computing for the GCM simulations made by IRI was partially provided by a grant from the NCAR Climate System Laboratory (CSL) program to the IRI. Authors are highly thankful to Dr. A. Robertson, IRI, USA for numerous inputs, useful suggestions and feedback in course of development of the paper. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), in particular, Jing-Jia Luo and Toshio Yamagata are duly acknowledged for providing their model's products used in this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India

    Nachiketa Acharya, U. C. Mohanty, Makarand A. Kulkarni & S. K. Dash

  2. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, A-50, Sector-62, Noida, India

    Sarat C. Kar

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  1. Nachiketa Acharya
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  2. Sarat C. Kar
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  3. U. C. Mohanty
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  4. Makarand A. Kulkarni
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  5. S. K. Dash
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Correspondence to Sarat C. Kar.

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Acharya, N., Kar, S.C., Mohanty, U.C. et al. Performance of GCMs for seasonal prediction over India—a case study for 2009 monsoon. Theor Appl Climatol 105, 505–520 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0396-2

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