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New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India

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Abstract

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing long-range forecasts (LRF) based on statistical methods for the southwest monsoon rainfall over India (ISMR) for more than 100 years. Many statistical and dynamical models including the operational models of IMD failed to predict the recent deficient monsoon years of 2002 and 2004. In this paper, we report the improved results of new experimental statistical models developed for LRF of southwest monsoon seasonal (June–September) rainfall. These models were developed to facilitate the IMD’s present two-stage operational forecast strategy. Models based on the ensemble multiple linear regression (EMR) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) techniques were developed to forecast the ISMR. These models used new methods of predictor selection and model development. After carrying out a detailed analysis of various global climate data sets; two predictor sets, each consisting of six predictors were selected. Our model performance was evaluated for the period from 1981 to 2004 by sliding the model training period with a window length of 23 years. The new models showed better performance in their hindcast, compared to the model based on climatology. The Heidke scores for the three category forecasts during the verification period by the first stage models based on EMR and PPR methods were 0.5 and 0.44, respectively, and those of June models were 0.63 and 0.38, respectively. Root mean square error of these models during the verification period (1981–2004) varied between 4.56 and 6.75% from long period average (LPA) as against 10.0% from the LPA of the model based on climatology alone. These models were able to provide correct forecasts of the recent two deficient monsoon rainfall events (2002 and 2004). The experimental forecasts for the 2005 southwest monsoon season based on these models were also found to be accurate.

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Acknowledgments

We are thankful to Dr (Mrs) N. Jayanthi, LACD ADGM(R) for giving us encouragement and support. We also thank Dr P.K. Das and Prof. Roddam Narasimha for offering valuable comments and suggestions on our earlier version of the manuscript. Some of these results were discussed with the scientists at the Indian Institute of Science and Indian Statistical Institute, Bangalore. We are thankful to them for their valuable comments and feedback. We also thank Dr Balaji Rajagopalan for his valuable suggestions on ensemble regression method. We also appreciate the sincere efforts made by Shri J.D. Kale and Shri. S.G. Nargund and other staff members of the National Climate Centre. We also thank the anonymous referees for their valuable comments and suggestions, which helped in improving the quality of the paper.

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  1. National Climate Centre, India Meteorological Department, Pune, 411 005, India

    M. Rajeevan, D. S. Pai & R. Anil Kumar

  2. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, 110 003, India

    B. Lal

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  1. M. Rajeevan
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  2. D. S. Pai
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  3. R. Anil Kumar
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Correspondence to M. Rajeevan.

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Rajeevan, M., Pai, D.S., Anil Kumar, R. et al. New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India. Clim Dyn 28, 813–828 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0197-6

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