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Temporal characteristics of northeast monsoon rainfall and its teleconnection with the large-scale circulation indices

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Abstract

This study investigates the temporal variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (NEMR) in India and its relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) using wavelet analysis. The results show that NEMR is highly variable, with a coefficient of variation of about 25%, which is due to its dependence on dynamic systems with a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The temporal variability of NEMR is at different time scales ranging from intra-annual to interannual to decadal time scales. The large-scale circulation features, ENSO and IOD, also exhibit variability at different time scales. El Niño events have a typical frequency range of 2 to 7 years, with a prolonged impact that can last for several months, spreading across the globe. Wavelet transforms of SOI and Nino 3.4 have revealed variability at the time scale of 2–8 years, which is in line with the observed ENSO cycle. The wavelet transform of DMI displays significant variability in short time scales, typically less than 2–4 years. The study also finds a strong negative relationship between NEMR and SOI, recorded in September, especially over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the periods 1900–1920 and 1980–2000. This correlation is strong at time scales of 2–4 years and 4–8 years during the periods 1880–1920, possibly related to the ENSO cycle and the oscillation of anomalous SST over the Indian Ocean. The study highlights the need for further studies to understand the physical processes that contribute to the observed variability in El Niño and other ocean–atmosphere interactions.

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Data availability

All data used in this study are freely available obtained directly from the source: Homogeneous Indian Monthly Rainfall dataset https://www.tropmet.res.in/data/data-archival/rain/iitm-subdivrf.txt for precipitation data. The circulation indices (i) SOI was taken from https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/soi/ maintained by Climate Research Unit under University of East Anglia, (ii) Nino 3.4 Index was taken from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina34.anom.data and (iii) DMI was taken from https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/ both maintained by NOAA Physical Research Laboratory.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the organizations from which data sets are obtained for conducting this study. The Homogeneous Indian Monthly Rainfall Data Sets (1871–2016) data have been prepared by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) from instrumental records maintained by the Meteorological Department (IMD). The data on the circulation indices are obtained from the NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Laboratory and Climatic Research Unit under University of East Anglia. The authors would like to express their sincere thanks to Mr. Unashish Mondal for his invaluable assistance in correcting the typography and grammar errors in this manuscript.

Funding

SKP is supported by the University Grant Commission (UGC) through the UGC-BSR Research Start Up Grant (No. F.30 – 414/2018(BSR)) under which this research has been conducted.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Earth Sciences, Central University of Rajasthan, Kishangarh, Rajasthan, India

    Harithasree Sreedevan & Subrat Kumar Panda

  2. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

    Kanhu Charan Pattnayak

  3. Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore, Singapore

    Kanhu Charan Pattnayak

Authors
  1. Harithasree Sreedevan
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  2. Subrat Kumar Panda
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Contributions

Harithasree S: conceptualization, methodology, investigation, writing—original draft. S. K. Panda: supervision, funding acquisition, conceptualization, writing—review and editing. K. C. Pattnayak: investigation, writing—review and editing.

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Correspondence to Subrat Kumar Panda.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Responsible Editor: Zhihua Zhang

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Sreedevan, H., Panda, S.K. & Pattnayak, K.C. Temporal characteristics of northeast monsoon rainfall and its teleconnection with the large-scale circulation indices. Arab J Geosci 16, 540 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-023-11648-y

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