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Role of radiation and canopy model in predicting heat waves using WRF over the city of Bhubaneswar, Odisha

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Abstract

The heat waves (HW) are more frequent with upsurge intensity and spread in the recent warming era over Bhubaneswar, the capital city of Odisha state in India. The city has experienced HW more than four events per year and reported casualties are higher during the recent era as compared to the past century. In addition, the HW caused ecosystem mortality and affected significantly the agriculture and water resource sectors. The city notably grows with urban areas in recent decades, thus, in this study, we explored the potential role of various radiation and urban canopy model schemes with different initial conditions (48, 24, and 12 h lead time) to assess the predictability of HW over Bhubaneswar using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A large number of simulations were carried out with three nested domains at a resolution of 4.5, 1.5, and 0.5 km for the three HW events. The model forecasts have been validated against the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis. The WRF model satisfactorily predicted the spatial distributions and timing of an HW with the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) radiation and Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) urban schemes over the Bhubaneswar urban region 2 days in advance. However, the performance of radiation and urban canopy model schemes varies from event to event. The composite of statistical errors and skill score analysis confirm that the CAM radiation scheme and UCM urban scheme performed well. Overall, CAM and UCM have around 30% and 20% lower percentages of errors, respectively. This study emphasizes the behavior of various radiation and urban canopy model schemes in predicting HW, specifically in the urban agglomeration of Bhubaneswar.

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Data availability statement

The WRF model outputs used for analysis in the study will be available from the authors on request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) for providing gridded datasets. The first author is thankful to the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) for providing funding support to carry out this research [(CORP: DG:3170]. PARAM Shivay and Seva supercomputer facilities, under the National Supercomputing Mission (NSM) program, Govt. of India, have been used to carry out the WRF model simulation and associated experiments, and the same is duly acknowledged. KKO acknowledges the THUMP Project (No.MoES/16/09/2018-RDEAS-THUMP-7) supported by the Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India. Also, thanks to the Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar for providing the necessary infrastructure to carry out research. Anonymous reviewers are acknowledged for their insightful comments and suggestions for improving the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Earth, Ocean, and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India

    Alugula Boyaj, DPranay Reddy, P. Sinha, N. R. Karrevula, Madhusmita Swain & U. C. Mohanty

  2. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India

    Raghu Nadimpalli & Akhil Srivastava

  3. Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune, India

    P. Sinha, Sahidul Islam & Akshara Kaginalkar

  4. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, National Institute of Technology, Rourkela, India

    Krishna K. Osuri

  5. Centre for Climate Smart Agriculture (CCSA), Siksha ‘O’ Anusandhan (Deemed to be University), Bhubaneswar, India

    U. C. Mohanty

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  1. Alugula Boyaj
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Contributions

AB did the data collection, analysis, and initial drafting. RN and PS did the conceptualization of the study and established the experimental setup. NRK and DPR performed model simulations. KKO, AS, and MS did validation and visualization of the results. Funding acquisition and investigation were performed by UCM, SI, and AK. All the authors participated in writing, reviewing, and editing the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Raghu Nadimpalli.

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The original online version of this article was revised: In this article author affiliation for one of the co-authors P. Sinha affiliation should be 1,3 instead of 3,4.

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Boyaj, A., Nadimpalli, R., Reddy, D. et al. Role of radiation and canopy model in predicting heat waves using WRF over the city of Bhubaneswar, Odisha. Meteorol Atmos Phys 135, 60 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00994-x

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