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Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland

  • Population ecology - Original research
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Abstract

Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator–prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986–2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983–2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator–prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1–3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk–grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than increased model parsimony.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to all voluntary ringers and hunters who helped to collect goshawk and grouse data, respectively. We thank Geir A. Sonerud and an anonymous reviewer for their thorough comments and suggestions of how to improve the analysis and manuscript text. The work was funded by the Academy of Finland (AL; grant ref. 135682).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 3000, 90014, Oulu, Finland

    Risto Tornberg

  2. Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066, 0316, Blindern, Oslo, Norway

    Andreas Lindén

  3. Novia University of Applied Sciences, Raaseporintie 9, 10600, Ekenas, Finland

    Patrik Byholm

  4. Integrative Ecology Unit, Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Viikinkaari 1, P.O. Box 65, 00014, Helsinki, Finland

    Esa Ranta

  5. Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Pohjoinen rautatiekatu 13, P.O. Box 17, 00014, Helsinki, Finland

    Jari Valkama

  6. Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute, Tutkijantie 2 E, 90570, Oulu, Finland

    Pekka Helle

  7. Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute, P.O. Box 2, 00791, Helsinki, Finland

    Harto Lindén

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  1. Risto Tornberg
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Correspondence to Risto Tornberg.

Additional information

Communicated by Douglas Robinson.

Esa Ranta: deceased in August 2008.

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Tornberg, R., Lindén, A., Byholm, P. et al. Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland. Oecologia 171, 863–872 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-012-2448-z

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