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Adélie penguin survival: age structure, temporal variability and environmental influences

  • Population ecology - Original Paper
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Abstract

The driving factors of survival, a key demographic process, have been particularly challenging to study, especially for winter migratory species such as the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae). While winter environmental conditions clearly influence Antarctic seabird survival, it has been unclear to which environmental features they are most likely to respond. Here, we examine the influence of environmental fluctuations, broad climatic conditions and the success of the breeding season prior to winter on annual survival of an Adélie penguin population using mark–recapture models based on penguin tag and resight data over a 16-year period. This analysis required an extension to the basic Cormack–Jolly–Seber model by incorporating age structure in recapture and survival sub-models. By including model covariates, we show that survival of older penguins is primarily related to the amount and concentration of ice present in their winter foraging grounds. In contrast, fledgling and yearling survival depended on other factors in addition to the physical marine environment and outcomes of the previous breeding season, but we were unable to determine what these were. The relationship between sea-ice and survival differed with penguin age: extensive ice during the return journey to breeding colonies was detrimental to survival for the younger penguins, whereas either too little or too much ice (between 15 and 80% cover) in the winter foraging grounds was detrimental for adults. Our results demonstrate that predictions of Adélie penguin survival can be improved by taking into account penguin age, prior breeding conditions and environmental features.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the Béchervaise Island field teams, in particular Judy Clarke, Megan Tierney and Knowles Kerry who established monitoring at Béchervaise Island. Angela Bender created the maps and Ben Raymond provided daily sea-ice data. Rob Massom and Alex Fraser provided suggestions regarding sea-ice data interpretation and Mark Bravington provided statistical advice. Andy Townsend developed the database and various engineers constructed, maintained and improved detection gateways and tag readers. Steve Nicol and Jemery Day provided useful suggestions for the manuscript. This project was supported by the AAD ASAC project #2722. Attachment of electronic tags to penguins and other procedures were with approval from the Australian Antarctic Division’s Animal Ethics Committee.

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  1. Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Channel Highway, Kingston, TAS, 7050, Australia

    Louise Emmerson & Colin Southwell

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  1. Louise Emmerson
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  2. Colin Southwell
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Correspondence to Louise Emmerson.

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Communicated by Markku Orell.

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Emmerson, L., Southwell, C. Adélie penguin survival: age structure, temporal variability and environmental influences. Oecologia 167, 951–965 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-011-2044-7

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