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Dental age estimation in Somali children using the Willems et al. model

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Abstract

Aim

The aim of the current study was to retrospectively collect dental panoramic radiographs from Somali children living in Finland, to use the radiographic data to develop a new age estimation model based on the model established by Willems et al. (J Forensic Sci 46(4):893–895, 2001), and to compare the age prediction performances of the Willems et al. model (WM) and the newly developed model.

Material and methods

Dental panoramic radiographs from 808 healthy Somalis born in Finland were selected. The development of the seven left mandibular permanent teeth, from the central incisor to the second molar, was staged according to Demirjian et al. (Hum Biol 45(2):211–227, 1973). Radiographs with all listed permanent teeth completely developed were excluded. The studied sample consisted of 635 subjects (311 females, 324 males) ranging in age from 4 to 18 years. Kappa and weighted Kappa statistics were used to quantify intra- and inter-observer agreement in stage allocation. The collected dataset was used to validate the WM, constructed on a Belgian Caucasian reference sample, and to establish a Somali-specific age estimation model (SM) based on the WM. Both models were validated and their age prediction performances quantified using mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE).

Results

The SM resulted in a slight underestimation of age when the sex groups were analysed separately or combined, with ME varying between 0.04 (standard deviation (SD) 1.01) and 0.05 (SD 1.04) years, MAE between 0.77 and 0.80 years and RMSE between 1.01 and 1.04 years. The WM statistically significantly underestimated the age of females, with an ME of 0.20 (SD 1.01) years (p = 0.0006). For males, and for females and males combined, no statistically significant ME was observed.

Conclusion

The WM and SM were similar in their age prediction performances, and the use of the WM in dental age assessment in the Somali population is justified.

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Funding

The Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Diseases, University of Helsinki, Finland funded the search of the sample from the Finnish Population Register Centre. The study was supported by a grant from the Association of Finnish Female Dentists. The authors are grateful to Senior Dental Officer Marja Noponen, DDS, PhD, and the personnel in the Unit for Specialised Oral Care in the Metropolitan Area and Kirkkonummi for arranging facilities for the study of radiographs and patient files. We thank Tuomo Maisala, DDS, in Oral Health Care, Helsinki, Finland for the search of the sample.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Forensic Medicine, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 40, Kytösuontie 11, 00014, University of Helsinki, Finland

    Mari Metsäniitty & Helena Ranta

  2. Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Diseases, University of Helsinki and Helsinki University Hospital, P.O. Box 41, Mannerheimintie 172, 00014, University of Helsinki, Finland

    Janna Waltimo-Sirén

  3. Leuven Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics Centre (L-BioStat), University of Leuven, Kapucijnenvoer 35, BE-3000, Leuven, Belgium

    Steffen Fieuws

  4. Department of Imaging and Pathology, Forensic Odontology, KU Leuven Campus Saint- Raphael, Kapucijnenvoer 7, Block A, box 7001, BE-3000, Leuven, Belgium

    Patrick Thevissen

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  1. Mari Metsäniitty
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mari Metsäniitty.

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Ethical approval was granted by the Research Ethics Committee of the Hjelt Institute, University of Helsinki (number 02/2010).

Conflicts of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

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Metsäniitty, M., Waltimo-Sirén, J., Ranta, H. et al. Dental age estimation in Somali children using the Willems et al. model. Int J Legal Med 132, 1779–1786 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-018-1926-1

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