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Age estimation based on Willems method versus new country-specific method in South African black children

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International Journal of Legal Medicine Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Aim

The aims of our study were to develop new maturity scores for dental age estimation in South African black children according to the Willems method, which was developed based on Belgian Caucasian (BC) reference data (Willems et al. J Forensic Sci 46(4):893–895, 2001), and to compare age prediction performance of both methods.

Subjects and methods

A total of 986 panoramic radiographs of healthy South African black (SAB) children (493 males and 493 females) in the age range of 4.14 to 14.99 years (mean age 10.06 years) were selected for obtaining developmental staging scores (according to Demirjian et al. Hum Biol 45(2):211–227, 1973). Willems BC methodology was applied to develop new country-specific maturity scores (Willems SAB). Age prediction performance of Willems BC and Willems SAB was compared.

Results

On average, Willems BC renders acceptable results with an overestimation of chronological age of 0.06 years (SD 0.88 years) in SAB children. Compared to Willems SAB, the overall mean absolute error was slightly higher with Willems BC (0.62 and 0.68 years, respectively), but this was not significant in males. Also, the root mean squared error was marginally higher in Willems BC.

Conclusion

The new age prediction method developed in South African black children was found to be better compared to Willems BC, although the difference seems to be small and clinically not relevant, especially in males.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Oral Health Sciences - Orthodontics, KU Leuven & Dentistry, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

    Guy Willems & Maria Cadenas de Llano-Pérula

  2. Medical Examiner’s Office, National Forensic Service, Wonju, South Korea

    Sang-Seob Lee

  3. Department of Oral Pathology and Oral Biology, School of Dentistry, University of Pretoria, Private bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa

    Andre Uys & Herman Bernitz

  4. Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, KU Leuven and University Hasselt, Leuven, Belgium

    Steffen Fieuws

  5. Department of Oral Health Sciences - Forensic Dentistry, KU Leuven & Dentistry, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

    Patrick Thevissen

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  1. Guy Willems
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  4. Herman Bernitz
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  7. Patrick Thevissen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guy Willems.

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Ethical approval was granted by the Faculty of Health Sciences Research Ethics Committee, University of Pretoria (number 122/2014 20.06.2014).

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Willems, G., Lee, SS., Uys, A. et al. Age estimation based on Willems method versus new country-specific method in South African black children. Int J Legal Med 132, 599–607 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-017-1686-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-017-1686-3

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