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Cancer risk estimates for gamma-rays with regard to organ-specific doses

Part I: All solid cancers combined

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Abstract

A previous analysis of the solid cancer mortality data for 1950–1990 from the Japanese life-span study of the A-bomb survivors has assessed the solid cancer risk coefficients for γ-rays in terms of the low dose risk coefficient ERR/Gy, i.e. the initial slope of the ERR vs. dose relation, and also in terms of the more precisely estimated intermediate dose risk coefficient, ERR(D1)/D1, for a reference dose, D1, which was chosen to be 1 Gy. The computations were performed for tentatively assumed values 20–50 of the neutron RBE against the reference dose and in terms of organ-averaged doses, rather than the traditionally applied colon doses. The resulting risk estimate for a dose of 1 Gy was about half as large as the most recent UNSCEAR estimate. The present assessment repeats the earlier analysis with two major extensions. It parallels computations based on organ-average doses with computations based on organ-specific doses and it updates the previous results by using the cancer mortality data for 1950–1997 which have recently been made available. With an assumed neutron RBE of 35, the resulting intermediate dose estimate of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for solid cancer mortality for a working population (ages 25–65 years) is 0.059/Gy with the attained-age model, and 0.044/Gy with the age-at-exposure model. For a population of all ages, 0.055/Gy is obtained with the attained-age model and 0.073/Gy with the age-at-exposure model. These values are up to about 20% higher than those obtained in the previous analysis with the 1950–1990 data. However, considerably more curvature in the dose-effect relation is now supported by the computations. A dose and dose-rate reduction factor DDREF=2 is now much more in line with the data than before. With this factor the LAR for a working population is—averaged over the age-at-exposure and the age-attained model—equal to 0.026/Gy. This is only half as large as the current ICRP estimate which is also based on the assumption DDREF=2.

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Notes

  1. As has been discussed earlier [4, 8], a value of the reference dose D1 can be chosen that makes the parameters α and c strictly orthogonal. The estimates of α and c and their standard errors then permit the determination of the standard error of the effect level at any dose. Orthogonality of α and c, for the A-bomb survivors life span study (LSS) data up to 2 Gy, would be achieved with a reference dose 1.2 Gy. However, it is convenient to use the same standard reference dose for different data sets. From this point of view the plain choice D1=1 Gy appears natural.

  2. Akaike [15] has developed an alternative criterion for comparing models based on information theory. This is the Akaike Information Criterion score (AIC) which is the deviance plus twice the number of fit parameters—the model with the lowest AIC score is most likely to be correct, with the difference in AIC score giving information on how much more likely one model is compared to the other. From Tables 2 and 3 it can be seen that the differences in AIC score for analogous a and e models are between 12 and 13 providing strong evidence in favour of the age-at-exposure model over the age-attained model. For this reason—and also because the results are very similar for the two models—only the age-at-exposure model results will be employed in a subsequent paper [9] that deals with the individual organ risk estimates.

  3. This ratio corresponds roughly to the parameter (1+θ max ) employed by Pierce and Preston in their analysis of the solid cancer incidence data (1958–1994) [13].

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Acknowledgements

This paper makes use of the data obtained from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) in Hiroshima, Japan. RERF is a private foundation funded equally by the Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare and the US Department of Energy through the US National Academy of Sciences. The conclusions in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the scientific judgement of RERF or its funding agencies. This work was funded partially by the European Commission under contract FIGD-CT-2000-0079.

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  1. Radiobiological Institute, University of Munich, Schillerstrasse 42, 80336 , Munich, Germany

    Linda Walsh, Werner Rühm & Albrecht M. Kellerer

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  1. Linda Walsh
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  2. Werner Rühm
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  3. Albrecht M. Kellerer
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Correspondence to Linda Walsh.

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Walsh, L., Rühm, W. & Kellerer, A.M. Cancer risk estimates for gamma-rays with regard to organ-specific doses. Radiat Environ Biophys 43, 145–151 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-004-0248-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-004-0248-5

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