On the conversion of solid cancer excess relative risk into lifetime attributable risk

Abstract 

Risk coefficients representing the lifetime radiation-induced cancer mortality (or incidence) attributable to an exposure to ionizing radiation, have been published by major international scientific committees. The calculations involve observations in an exposed population and choices of a standard population (for risk transportation), of suitable numerical models, and of computational techniques. The present lack of a firm convention for these choices makes it difficult to inter-compare risk estimates presented by different scientific bodies. Some issues that relate to a necessary harmonization and standardization of risk estimates are explored here. Computational methods are discussed and, in line with the approach utilized by ICRP, conversion factors from excess relative risk (ERR) to lifetime attributable risk (LAR) are exemplified for exposures at all ages and for occupational exposures. A standard population is specified to illustrate the possibility of a simplified standard for risk transportation computations. It is suggested that a more realistic perception of lifetime risk could be gained by the use of coefficients scaled to the lifetime spontaneous cancer rates in the standard population. The resulting quantity lifetime fractional risk (LFR) is advantageous also because it depends much less on the choice of the reference population than the lifetime attributable risk (LAR).