Abstract
This study investigates the interdecadal changes in the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) formed within or entered the South China Sea (SCS) in the TC season (June to November) during 1977–2018. Based on change-point detection in five TC datasets, two high-intensity periods [period 1 (P1): 1977–1993; and period 3 (P3): 2006–2018] and a low-intensity period [period 2 (P2): 1994–2002] were identified. Genesis location and vertical moisture advection dominate the interdecadal changes in TC intensity. TC genesis locations in P1 and P3 shift more eastward than in P2. Statistical analysis shows that the farther east the genesis is located, the longer the intensification duration and the higher the intensity the TC can reach. It is also found that environmental factors around the TC tracks are the other reason for the TC intensity. TCs in P2 pass through the region with adverse environmental conditions more frequently. Mid-level relative humidity and vertical motion are key environmental factors for TC intensity. Genesis location is regulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation, the north Indian Ocean SST and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulations in the tropical Indian Ocean and SCS affect vertical motion. The results provide some helpful insights into the variation of SCS TC intensity.
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Data availability statement
The best track data are from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) which are available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/ international-best-track-archive-for-climate-stewardship-ibtracs/v04r00/access/netcdf/. HURSAT-B1 data is from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/hurricane-satellite-hursat-b1/archive/v06/. ERA5 dataset is from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF, https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/search?text=ERA5&type=dataset). EN4.2.1 oceanic reanalysis dataset from the Hadley Center, which is from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/download-en4-2-1.html, is from the Hadley Center. HadISST1 is from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html. SHAI and SHII from National Climate Center could be gained through http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/download/precipitation/diagnosis/NWP_high/wpsh_idx.txt. The PDO is obtained from the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean of the University of Washington (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat).
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Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41731173 and 42192564), the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFA0606701), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB42000000 and XDA20060502), the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0306), the Innovation Academy of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISEE2021ZD01), and the Leading Talents of Guangdong Province Program. The numerical simulation is supported by the High Performance Computing Division in the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology.
Funding
This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41731173 and 42192564), National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFA0606701), Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB42000000 and XDA20060502), Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0306), Innovation Academy of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISEE2021ZD01), Leading Talents of Guangdong Province Program.
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Zheng, M., Wang, C. Interdecadal changes of tropical cyclone intensity in the South China Sea. Clim Dyn 60, 409–425 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06305-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06305-1