Abstract
This study reveals a close relation between autumn Arctic sea ice change (SIC) in the Laptev Sea-eastern Siberian Sea-Beaufort Sea and subsequent spring Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT) variation. Specifically, more (less) SIC over the above regions in early autumn generally correspond to SAT warming (cooling) over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during subsequent spring. Early autumn Arctic SIC affects spring Eurasian SAT via modulating spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) associated atmospheric changes. The meridional temperature gradient over the mid-high latitudes decreases following the Arctic sea ice loss. This results in deceleration of prevailing westerly winds over the mid-latitudes of the troposphere, which leads to increase in the upward propagation of planetary waves and associated Eliassen-Palm flux convergence in the stratosphere over the mid-high latitudes. Thereby, westerly winds in the stratosphere are reduced and the polar vortex is weakened. Through the wave-mean flow interaction and downward propagation of zonal wind anomalies, a negative spring AO pattern is formed in the troposphere, which favors SAT cooling over Eurasia. The observed autumn Arctic SIC-spring Eurasian SAT connection is reproduced in the historical simulation (1850–2005) of the flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model, spectral version 2 (FGOALS-s2). The FGOALS-s2 also simulates the close connection between autumn SIC and subsequent spring AO. Further analysis suggests that the prediction skill of the spring Eurasian SAT was enhanced when taking the autumn Arctic SIC signal into account.
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We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions and comments, which helped to improve the paper. This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants (41530425, 41605050, 41475081, and 41661144016), the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST, and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2017T100102).
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Chen, S., Wu, R. Impacts of early autumn Arctic sea ice concentration on subsequent spring Eurasian surface air temperature variations. Clim Dyn 51, 2523–2542 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4026-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4026-x