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Potential modulations of pre-monsoon aerosols during El Niño: impact on Indian summer monsoon

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Abstract

The potential role of aerosol loading on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the El Niño years are examined using satellite-derived observations and a state of the art fully interactive aerosol-chemistry-climate model. The Aerosol Index (AI) from TOMS (1978–2005) and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MISR spectroradiometer (2000–2010) indicate a higher-than-normal aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) during the pre-monsoon season with a concurrent El Niño. Sensitivity experiments using ECHAM5-HAMMOZ climate model suggests that this enhanced loading of pre-monsoon absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic plain can reduce the drought during El Niño years by invoking the ‘Elevated-Heat-Pump’ mechanism through an anomalous aerosol-induced warm core in the atmospheric column. This anomalous heating upshot the relative strengthening of the cross-equatorial moisture inflow associated with the monsoon and eventually reduces the severity of drought during El Niño years. The findings are subject to the usual limitations such as the uncertainties in observations, and limited number of El Niño years (during the study period).

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Acknowledgements

Authors acknowledge their gratitude towards Dr. R. Krishnan, the Executive Director, Centre for Climate Change Research, IITM for his encouragement during this study. All the simulations are carried out in HPC facility of IITM. IITM is a fully funded institute of Ministry of Earth Science, Government of India. We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions.

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  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

    S. Fadnavis, Chaitri Roy, T. P. Sabin & D. C. Ayantika

  2. Centre for Earth and Space Sciences, University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad, 500 046, India

    K. Ashok

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  1. S. Fadnavis
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Fadnavis, S., Roy, C., Sabin, T.P. et al. Potential modulations of pre-monsoon aerosols during El Niño: impact on Indian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 49, 2279–2290 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3451-6

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