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Prediction of dominant intraseasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon

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Abstract

Intraseasonal monsoon prediction is the most imperative task, but there remains an enduring challenge in climate science. The present study aims to provide a physical understanding of the sources for prediction of dominant intraseasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon (EA-WNPSM): pre-Meiyu&Baiu, Changma&Meiyu, WNPSM, and monsoon gyre modes classified by the self-organizing map analysis. Here, we use stepwise regression to determine the predictors for the four modes in the EA-WNPSM. The selected predictors are based on the persistent and tendency signals of the sea surface temperature (SST)/2m air temperature and sea level pressure fields, which reflect the asymmetric response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the ocean and land surface anomalous conditions. For the pre-Meiyu&Baiu mode, the SST cooling tendency over the western North Pacific (WNP), which persists into summer, is the distinguishing contributor that results in strong baroclinic instability. A major precursor for the Changma&Meiyu mode is related to the WNP subtropical high, induced by the persistent SST difference between the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The WNPSM mode is mostly affected by the Pacific-Japan pattern, and monsoon gyre mode is primarily associated with a persistent SST cooling over the tropical Indian Ocean by the preceding ENSO signal. This study carries important implications for prediction by establishing valuable precursors of the four modes including nonlinear characteristics.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by GRL Grant of the National Research Foundation (NRF) funded by the Korean Government (MEST 2011-0021927). This paper was further improved by the invaluable comments and suggestions of the anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University, 609-735, Busan, Korea

    Hyoeun Oh & Kyung-Ja Ha

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  1. Hyoeun Oh
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Correspondence to Kyung-Ja Ha.

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Oh, H., Ha, KJ. Prediction of dominant intraseasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 47, 2025–2037 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2948-8

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