Abstract
Urbanization plays an important role in human-induced climate change at the regional scale through altered land-atmosphere interactions over urban areas. In this study, the impacts of future urbanization in China on climate are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale future projections using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results for 2050 show decreased latent and increased sensible heat fluxes over the urban area, therefore leading to higher surface temperatures and less humidity. Future climate projections reveal that urbanization produces strong warming effects, up to 1.9 °C at regional and local/urban scales, which is comparable to the magnitude of greenhouse gas forcing under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Greater urban warming effects are projected during night and summer, which can be attributed to the high heat capacity of built-up areas. The impacts of urbanization on precipitation show varying effects primarily in summer—both increases and decreases depending on spatial scale—related to both local moisture deficits and large-scale circulation changes. Urbanization could strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon in southern China in summer, and slightly weaken it in eastern China in winter. Due to these significant impacts, we suggest that urbanization should be included in model projections to provide a more realistic and complete depiction of future climate.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
The CCSM4 is a subset of CESM1, hereafter referred to as CESM.
References
Argüeso D, Evans J, Fita L, Bormann K (2014) Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change. Clim Dyn 42:2183–2199. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1789-6
Bruyère C, Done J, Holland G, Fredrick S (2014) Bias corrections of global models for regional climate simulations of high-impact weather. Clim Dyn 43:1847–1856. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-2011-6
Chen F, Dudhia J (2001) Coupling an advanced land surface-hydrology model with the penn state—NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: model implementation and sensitivity. Mon Weather Rev 129:569–585. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2
Chen L, Frauenfeld OW (2014a) Surface air temperature changes over the 20th and 21st centuries in China simulated by 20 CMIP5 models. J Clim 27:3920–3937. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00465.1
Chen L, Frauenfeld OW (2014b) A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation simulations over China based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:5767–5786. doi:10.1002/2013JD021190
Chen H, Zhang Y (2013) Sensitivity experiments of impacts of large-scale urbanization in East China on East Asian winter monsoon. Chin Sci Bull 58:809–815. doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5579-z
Chen F, Kusaka H, Bornstein R, Ching J, Grimmond CSB, Grossman-Clarke S, Loridan T, Manning KW, Martilli A, Miao S, Sailor D, Salamanca FP, Taha H, Tewari M, Wang X, Wyszogrodzki AA, Zhang C (2011) The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems. Int J Climatol 31:273–288. doi:10.1002/joc.2158
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette JJ, Park BK, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut JN, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. doi:10.1002/qj.828
Di Vittorio AV, Chini LP, Bond-Lamberty B, Mao J, Shi X, Truesdale J, Craig A, Calvin K, Jones A, Collins WD, Edmonds J, Hurtt GC, Thornton P, Thomson A (2014) From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment—earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations. Biogeosciences 11:6435–6450. doi:10.5194/bg-11-6435-2014
Dudhia J (1989) Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J Atmos Sci 46:3077–3107. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<3077:NSOCOD>2.0.CO;2
Feng J-M, Wang Y-L, Ma Z-G, Liu Y-H (2012) Simulating the regional impacts of urbanization and anthropogenic heat release on climate across China. J Clim 25:7187–7203. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00333.1
Feng J-M, Wang Y-L, Ma Z-G (2013) Long-term simulation of large-scale urbanization effect on the East Asian monsoon. Clim Change 129:511–523. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0885-2
Feng J, Wang J, Yan Z (2014) Impact of anthropogenic heat release on regional climate in three vast urban agglomerations in China. Adv Atmos Sci 31:363–373. doi:10.1007/s00376-013-3041-z
Flanner MG (2009) Integrating anthropogenic heat flux with global climate models. Geophys Res Lett 36:L02801. doi:10.1029/2008GL036465
Gao X, Shi Y, Giorgi F (2011) A high resolution simulation of climate change over China. Sci China Earth Sci 54:462–472. doi:10.1007/s11430-010-4035-7
Gao X, Shi Y, Zhang D, Giorgi F (2012) Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. Chin Sci Bull 57:1188–1195. doi:10.1007/s11434-011-4935-8
Gao Y, Xu J, Chen D (2015) Evaluation of WRF mesoscale climate simulations over the tibetan plateau during 1979–2011. J Clim. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00300.1
Georgescu M, Mahalov A, Moustaoui M (2012) Seasonal hydroclimatic impacts of Sun Corridor expansion. Environ Res Lett 7:034026
Gong P, Liang S, Carlton EJ, Jiang Q, Wu J, Wang L, Remais JV (2012) Urbanisation and health in China. Lancet 379:843–852. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61878-3
Grimm NB, Faeth SH, Golubiewski NE, Redman CL, Wu J, Bai X, Briggs JM (2008) Global change and the ecology of cities. Science 319:756–760. doi:10.1126/science.1150195
Güneralp B, Güneralp İ, Liu Y (2015a) Changing global patterns of urban exposure to flood and drought hazards. Glob Environ Change 31:217–225. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.002
Güneralp B, Perlstein A, Seto K (2015b) Balancing urban growth and ecological conservation: a challenge for planning and governance in China. AMBIO. doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0625-0
Güneralp B, Seto KC (2013) Futures of global urban expansion: uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation. Environ Res Lett 8:014025. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014025
Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 dataset. Int J Climatol 34:623–642. doi:10.1002/joc.3711
Hong S-Y, Dudhia J, Chen S-H (2004) A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation. Mon Weather Rev 132:103–120. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0103:ARATIM>2.0.CO;2
Hong S-Y, Noh Y, Dudhia J (2006) A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon Weather Rev 134:2318–2341. doi:10.1175/MWR3199.1
Hua LJ, Ma ZG, Guo WD (2008) The impact of urbanization on air temperature across China. Theor Appl Climatol 93:179–194. doi:10.1007/s00704-007-0339-8
Huszar P, Halenka T, Belda M, Zak M, Sindelarova K, Miksovsky J (2014) Regional climate model assessment of the urban land-surface forcing over central Europe. Atmos Chem Phys 14:12393–12413. doi:10.5194/acp-14-12393-2014
Ichinose T, Shimodozono K, Hanaki K (1999) Impact of anthropogenic heat on urban climate in Tokyo. Atmos Environ 33:3897–3909. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(99)00132-6
Jiang DB, Zhang Y, Lang XM (2011) Vegetation feedback under future global warming. Theor Appl Climatol 106:211–227. doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0428-6
Jones PD, Lister DH, Li Q (2008) Urbanization effects in large-scale temperature records, with an emphasis on China. J Geophys Res Atmos 113:D16122. doi:10.1029/2008JD009916
Kain JS (2004) The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. J Appl Meteorol 43:170–181. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043<0170:TKCPAU>2.0.CO;2
Kalnay E, Cai M (2003) Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate. Nature 423:528–531
Kaufmann RK, Seto KC, Schneider A, Liu Z, Zhou L, Wang W (2007) Climate response to rapid urban growth: evidence of a human-induced precipitation deficit. J Clim 20:2299–2306. doi:10.1175/JCLI4109.1
Knutti R, Sedlacek J (2013) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Clim Change 3:369–373. doi:10.1038/nclimate1716
Kusaka H, Kimura F (2004) Coupling a single-layer urban canopy model with a simple atmospheric model: impact on urban heat island simulation for an idealized case. J Meteorol Soc Japan. Ser II 82:67–80. doi:10.2151/jmsj.82.67
Kusaka H, Kondo H, Kikegawa Y, Kimura F (2001) A simple single-layer urban canopy model for atmospheric models: comparison with multi-layer and slab models. Bound Layer Meteorol 101:329–358. doi:10.1023/A:1019207923078
Liao J, Wang T, Wang X, Xie M, Jiang Z, Huang X, Zhu J (2014) Impacts of different urban canopy schemes in WRF/Chem on regional climate and air quality in Yangtze River Delta, China. Atmos Res 145–146:226–243. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.04.005
Liu S, Gao W, Liang X-Z (2013) A regional climate model downscaling projection of China future climate change. Clim Dyn 41:1871–1884. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1632-5
Mahmood R, Pielke RA, Hubbard KG, Niyogi D, Dirmeyer PA, McAlpine C, Carleton AM, Hale R, Gameda S, Beltrán-Przekurat A, Baker B, McNider R, Legates DR, Shepherd M, Du J, Blanken PD, Frauenfeld OW, Nair US, Fall S (2014) Land cover changes and their biogeophysical effects on climate. Int J Climatol 34:929–953. doi:10.1002/joc.3736
Miao S, Chen F, LeMone MA, Tewari M, Li Q, Wang Y (2009) An observational and modeling study of characteristics of urban heat island and boundary layer structures in Beijing. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 48:484–501. doi:10.1175/2008JAMC1909.1
Mlawer EJ, Taubman SJ, Brown PD, Iacono MJ, Clough SA (1997) Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J Geophys Res Atmos 102:16663–16682. doi:10.1029/97JD00237
Monaghan AJ, Steinhoff DF, Bruyere CL, Yates D (2014) NCAR CESM global bias-corrected CMIP5 output to support WRF/MPAS research. Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO. doi:10.5065/D6DJ5CN4. Accessed 30 Mar 2015
Niyogi D, Pyle P, Lei M, Arya SP, Kishtawal CM, Shepherd M, Chen F, Wolfe B (2010) Urban modification of thunderstorms: an observational storm climatology and model case study for the Indianapolis urban region*. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 50:1129–1144. doi:10.1175/2010JAMC1836.1
Oke TR (1982) The energetic basis of the urban heat Island. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 108:1–24. doi:10.1002/qj.49710845502
Oleson KW, Monaghan A, Wilhelmi O, Barlage M, Brunsell N, Feddema J, Hu L, Steinhoff DF (2015) Interactions between urbanization, heat stress, and climate change. Clim Change 129:525–541. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0936-8
Ren G, Zhou Y (2014) Urbanization effect on trends of extreme temperature indices of national stations over Mainland China, 1961–2008. J Clim 27:2340–2360. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00393.1
Ren G, Zhou Y, Chu Z, Zhou J, Zhang A, Guo J, Liu X (2008) Urbanization effects on observed surface air temperature trends in north China. J Clim 21:1333–1348. doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1348.1
Sailor DJ, Lu L (2004) A top–down methodology for developing diurnal and seasonal anthropogenic heating profiles for urban areas. Atmos Environ 38:2737–2748. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.01.034
Seto KC, Güneralp B, Hutyra LR (2012) Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109:16083–16088. doi:10.1073/pnas.1211658109
Shao H, Song J, Ma H (2013) Sensitivity of the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation to an idealized large-scale urban expansion. J Meteorol Soc Japan Ser II 91:163–177. doi:10.2151/jmsj.2013-205
Shastri H, Paul S, Ghosh S, Karmakar S (2015) Impacts of urbanization on Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes. J Geophys Res Atmos 120:495–516. doi:10.1002/2014JD022061
Shepherd JM (2005) A review of current investigations of urban-induced rainfall and recommendations for the future. Earth Interact 9:1–27. doi:10.1175/EI156.1
Shimadera H, Kondo A, Shrestha KL, Kitaoka K, Inoue Y (2015) Numerical evaluation of the impact of urbanization on summertime precipitation in Osaka, Japan. Adv Meteorol 11. doi:10.1155/2015/379361
Trail M, Tsimpidi AP, Liu P, Tsigaridis K, Hu Y, Nenes A, Stone B, Russell AG (2013) Potential impact of land use change on future regional climate in the Southeastern U.S.: reforestation and crop land conversion. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:11, 577–11, 588. doi:10.1002/2013JD020356
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014) World urbanization prospects: the 2014 revision, highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/352)
Vautard R, Cattiaux J, Yiou P, Thepaut J-N, Ciais P (2010) Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness. Nat Geosci 3:756–761. doi:10.1038/ngeo979
Wang J, Feng J, Yan Z, Hu Y, Jia G (2012) Nested high-resolution modeling of the impact of urbanization on regional climate in three vast urban agglomerations in China. J Geophys Res Atmos 117:D21103. doi:10.1029/2012JD018226
Wang X, Liao J, Zhang J, Shen C, Chen W, Xia B, Wang T (2013) A numeric study of regional climate change induced by urban expansion in the pearl river delta, China. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 53:346–362. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-054.1
Wang X, Sun X, Tang J, Yang X (2015) Urbanization-induced regional warming in Yangtze river delta: potential role of anthropogenic heat release. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.4296
Wu K, Yang X (2013) Urbanization and heterogeneous surface warming in eastern China. Chin Sci Bull 58:1363–1373. doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5627-8
Tewari M, Chen F, Wang W, Dudhia J, LeMone M, Mitchell K, Ek M, Gayno G, Wegiel J, Cuenca R (2004) Implementation and verification of the unified NOAH land surface model in the WRF model. In: 20th conference on weather analysis and forecasting/16th conference on numerical weather prediction, pp 11–15. https://staff.ucar.edu/browse/people/7309/OSGC-000-000-008-560
Yang X, Hou Y, Chen B (2011) Observed surface warming induced by urbanization in east China. J Geophys Res Atmos 116:D14113. doi:10.1029/2010JD015452
Yu R, Wang XS, Yan Z, Yan HM, Jiang QN (2013) Regional climate effects of conversion from grassland to forestland in southeastern China. Adv Meteorol. doi:10.1155/2013/630953
Yuan X, Liang X-Z, Wood E (2012) WRF ensemble downscaling seasonal forecasts of China winter precipitation during 1982–2008. Clim Dyn 39:2041–2058. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1241-8
Zhang N, Gao Z, Wang X, Chen Y (2010) Modeling the impact of urbanization on the local and regional climate in Yangtze River Delta, China. Theor Appl Climatol 102:331–342. doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0263-1
Zhang F, Li X, Wang WM, Ke XL, Shi QL (2013) Impacts of future grassland changes on surface climate in Mongolia. Adv Meteorol. doi:10.1155/2013/263746
Zhang Y, Smith JA, Luo L, Wang Z, Baeck ML (2014) Urbanization and rainfall variability in the Beijing metropolitan region. J Hydrometeorol 15:2219–2235. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-0180.1
Zhao CH, Jiang QO, Sun ZX, Zhong HY, Lu SS (2013) Projected urbanization impacts on surface climate and energy budgets in the pearl river delta of China. Adv Meteorol. doi:10.1155/2013/542086
Zhou L, Dickinson RE, Tian Y, Fang J, Li Q, Kaufmann RK, Tucker CJ, Myneni RB (2004) Evidence for a significant urbanization effect on climate in China. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101:9540–9544. doi:10.1073/pnas.0400357101
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to the anonymous reviewers whose insightful comments helped improve our manuscript. The “Global 6-hourly Bias-corrected CMIP5 CESM” dataset was obtained from the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) Research Data Archive at NCAR (http://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds316.1/). Computer resources were allocated by the Texas A&M Supercomputing Facility.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, L., Frauenfeld, O.W. Impacts of urbanization on future climate in China. Clim Dyn 47, 345–357 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2840-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2840-6