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Decadal changes in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the late 1990s

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Abstract

A pronounced decadal change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the late 1990s was identified. Based on a comparison of the two epochs that occurred before and after the late 1990s, the TC genesis number exhibited an evident decrease over the southern WNP (S-WNP: 5°–20°N, 105°–170°E) and an increase over the northern WNP (N-WNP: 20°–25°N, 115°–155°E), which partly corresponded to a significant northward migration in the seasonal mean latitudinal location of TC genesis, i.e., from 17.2°N to 18.7°N. After the late 1990s, the northwestward-moving track became the most dominant track mode, accompanied by the weakening of both the westward-moving track and the northeastward-recurving track. Meanwhile, the TC occurrence frequency (TCF) experienced evident increases over southeastern China and the Okinawa islands, while prominent decreases occurred over the South China Sea, the Philippine Sea, Japan and east of Japan. Changes in the TCF were determined by TC genesis changes, TC track shifts and variations in regional TC durations, which were all ascribed to the decadal change in tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. The full picture on the decadal changes in the WNP TC activity revealed in this study may provide useful guidance for regional TC seasonal forecasts and future projections.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Dr. Ming Zhao for his helpful comments and Profs. Xuyang Ge and Liguang Wu for their insightful suggestions at the initial stage of this work. This study was supported by funds from the National Basic Research Program (‘973’ Program) of China (Grant No. 2012CB955401) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375003 and 41321001). J Yang acknowledges the financial support from the Beijing Higher Education Young Elite Teacher Project and the Project supported by State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology. Y Wang acknowledges the financial support by National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 41375098 and 41375093 and by the USGS Grant G12AC20501 to University of Hawaii.

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  1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Haozhe He, Jing Yang, Daoyi Gong, Rui Mao & Miaoni Gao

  2. International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, 96825, USA

    Yuqing Wang

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  1. Haozhe He
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Correspondence to Jing Yang.

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He, H., Yang, J., Gong, D. et al. Decadal changes in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the late 1990s. Clim Dyn 45, 3317–3329 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2541-1

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