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An optimal index for measuring the effect of East Asian winter monsoon on China winter temperature

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Abstract

Extreme cold events occur frequently in China. The authors define a representative yet simple index to reveal the monthly changes in China winter temperature associated with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), which is represented by both the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode and the country-mean temperature index of Chinese 160 gauge stations. A combined technique of correlation and multivariate EOF (Corr-MVEOF) analyses is applied to capture the dominant coupled patterns of EAWM circulation system. Based on the atmospheric circulation features captured by the leading Corr-MVEOF mode, a new EAWM index referred to as CNWMI is derived by using a stepwise regression analysis. The CNWMI highlights the importance of (1) the Mongolia-Siberian High (MSH) and its southward expansion and (2) the Asia-wide meridional dipole anomaly of 500 hPa geopotential height. Compared with the 27 existing EAWM indices, the CNWMI not only best represents the leading modes of both EAWM circulation system and China winter temperature, but also reasonably tracks the intraseasonal-to-interdecadal variations of EAWM so that the monthly intensity of EAWM can be monitored conveniently. In particular, the Aleutian low (AL) is not strongly related to the MSH and may not be responsible for the variability of EAWM/MSH. Moreover, the indices that are highly correlated with the temperature over southern East Asia do not show significant relationships with the AL, which is different from the conventional concept that a strong EAWM/MSH is linked to a deepened AL. In contrast, the anomalous Australia-Maritime Continent low is in good agreement with the variation of EAWM/MSH.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the two anonymous reviewers whose comments improve the overall quality of this paper, and Prof. Fei-Fei Jin of the University of Hawaii, Lin Wang of the Chinese Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Yonghong Yao of the Nanjing University and Mrs. Zhenning Li and Kaiqiang Deng of the Sun Yat-sen University for several helpful discussions. This research was supported by the National Key Scientific Research Plan of China (Grants 2012CB956002 and 2014CB953900), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41075052 and 41375081), the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Grants GYHY201406018 and 201206038), the LASW State Key Laboratory Special Fund (2013LASW-A05), and the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change.

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  1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, China

    Chundi Hu & Qigang Wu

  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, 135 West Xingangxi Road, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Chundi Hu & Song Yang

  3. Institute of Earth Climate and Environment System, Sun Yat-sen University, 135 West Xingangxi Road, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Song Yang

  4. Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, China

    Qigang Wu

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Hu, C., Yang, S. & Wu, Q. An optimal index for measuring the effect of East Asian winter monsoon on China winter temperature. Clim Dyn 45, 2571–2589 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2493-5

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