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Initiation and amplification of the Ningaloo Niño

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Abstract

Marine heat waves along the Western Australian coast are potentially damaging to the marine environment especially coastal fisheries and the Ningaloo Reef. Initiation and amplification mechanisms for marine heat waves (referred to as ‘Ningaloo Niño’ events) are explored using ocean and atmosphere reanalyses for the period 1960–2011. We find that the onset stage from October to November is promoted by wind-evaporation-SST feedback that operates to the northwest of the coast on the north-eastern flank of the Mascarene subtropical high: cyclonic anomalies act to reduce the surface wind speed and warm the ocean surface, thereby driving increased rainfall and stronger cyclonic anomalies. The growth and southward expansion of positive SST anomalies along the Australian west coast is further supplemented by anomalous poleward advection of heat by the Leeuwin Current, which is coupled with the cyclonic anomalies off the coast. The strongest Ningaloo Niño events, such as the record strong 2011 event, occur in conjunction with La Niña conditions in the Pacific, which drives westerly wind anomalies to the northwest of Australia that can promote the WES feedback and accelerate the Leeuwin Current via transmission of thermocline anomalies from the western Pacific onto the west Australian coast. However, many Ningaloo Niño events occur independent of La Niña and some Ningaloo Niño events even occur during certain El Niños. We explain this general independence from ENSO because the triggering of Ningaloo Niño events from the Pacific is most sensitive to antecedent SST anomalies in the far western Pacific, rather than in the central Pacific where ENSO typically has greatest magnitude.

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Notes

  1. ENSO years are identified using the Niño Index, based on SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region, provided by the Climate Prediction Center at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml.

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Acknowledgments

Support for this work was provided by the Australian Climate Change Science Program (ACCSP). The eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis (BRAN3.5) was created as part of the BLUElink partnership project between CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and the Royal Australian Navy. We thank Drs. Claire Spillman, Li Shi and Gary Meyers for reviewing earlier versions of this manuscript, and the two anonymous journal reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, TAS, Australia

    Andrew G. Marshall

  2. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

    Harry H. Hendon

  3. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Floreat, WA, Australia

    Ming Feng

  4. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, TAS, Australia

    Andreas Schiller

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  1. Andrew G. Marshall
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  2. Harry H. Hendon
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  3. Ming Feng
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  4. Andreas Schiller
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Correspondence to Andrew G. Marshall.

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Marshall, A.G., Hendon, H.H., Feng, M. et al. Initiation and amplification of the Ningaloo Niño. Clim Dyn 45, 2367–2385 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2477-5

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